Rising tensions between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates are being closely watched in New Delhi, not because India is a party to these disputes, but because the consequences of any serious rupture
in the Gulf would be immediate and far-reaching for Indian interests, top intelligence sources have told CNN-News18. Yemen, the Red Sea corridor, and the Horn of Africa are once again emerging as interconnected pressure points, and even limited escalation could test the stability of a region that remains critical to India’s economic security and diaspora welfare.
India has invested years in building a carefully balanced Gulf policy. The UAE is among India’s closest strategic partners, bound by wide-ranging agreements on defence cooperation, trade, technology, and people-to-people ties. The I2U2 framework linking India, Israel, the UAE, and the United States reflects New Delhi’s growing comfort in operating within minilateral arrangements that combine economics, security and innovation. At the same time, India’s relationship with Saudi Arabia has deepened substantially, driven by energy dependence, expanding investment flows, and shared concerns about regional stability. Riyadh is no longer viewed only as an oil supplier but as a long-term economic and strategic partner.
It is this dual depth that makes any Saudi–UAE divergence particularly sensitive for India. Reports of sharp differences over Yemen, Red Sea security, and influence in the Horn of Africa, including developments around Somaliland, have raised concerns in strategic circles. Allegations of attacks on shipping linked to Gulf states, regardless of attribution, underline how fragile maritime security remains. For India, the Bab-el-Mandeb and adjoining sea lanes are not abstract geopolitical spaces but lifelines through which energy supplies, trade, and Indian shipping move daily.
The stakes are substantial. India imports more than 85 per cent of its crude oil, much of it from the Gulf. Any sustained disruption in the Red Sea or Arabian Sea would push up freight and insurance costs and place immediate pressure on energy prices. Nearly nine million Indians live and work across the Gulf, with the largest concentrations in the UAE and Saudi Arabia. Their safety and well-being are a core responsibility of the Indian state, and past evacuations from conflict zones have shown how quickly regional crises can translate into humanitarian and logistical challenges for New Delhi.
The strategic picture is further complicated by Pakistan’s deepening defence relationship with Saudi Arabia. A formal mutual defence framework, if operationalised during a crisis, would narrow Islamabad’s room for manoeuvre and potentially harden alignments in the region. Given the already tense India–Pakistan relationship, even indirect regional spillovers would demand careful calibration by Indian policymakers.
According to the intelligence sources, from an Indian perspective, the priority remains de-escalation and dialogue. New Delhi has no interest in choosing sides between two partners that are central to its Gulf strategy. Instead, India’s growing credibility with all major regional actors positions it as a quiet stabilising influence. India’s consistent emphasis on sovereignty, maritime security, and inclusive regional cooperation resonates across West Asia, and its ability to maintain productive relations simultaneously with the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Israel gives it diplomatic leverage that few others possess.
The sources said that China’s expanding footprint and Pakistan’s alignment strategies do not negate India’s advantages. India’s ties in the Gulf are rooted not only in state-to-state transactions but also in decades of social, economic, and cultural interdependence. This depth allows New Delhi to engage candidly while avoiding public posturing. The Ministry of External Affairs is therefore right to observe developments closely, maintain open channels with all sides, and prepare contingency plans without amplifying tensions.
West Asia remains in search of a broader and more durable peace even after limited breakthroughs elsewhere. New flashpoints, whether in Yemen, the Red Sea, or the Horn of Africa, risk reversing fragile gains. For India, stability in the Gulf is not optional. It is integral to energy security, economic growth, and the safety of millions of its citizens abroad. The coming months will test India’s diplomatic balance, but they also offer an opportunity for New Delhi to reinforce its role as a responsible, steady, and trusted partner in a volatile region.
