UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer is expected to set out a timetable for leaving Downing Street, potentially beginning a months-long process through which Britain could install Andy Burnham as its next prime
minister without holding a general election.
According to The Guardian, Starmer could announce his intentions outside 10 Downing Street on Monday after he spent the weekend at Chequers considering an exit plan. The most likely scenario would see him remain prime minister until the autumn, giving Labour time to select a successor and allowing the incoming leader to prepare for government.
Burnham, who returned to Parliament after an overwhelming victory in the Makerfield byelection, is widely seen as the frontrunner. But his route to Downing Street would still involve several political and constitutional steps. Starmer cannot simply nominate him as his successor, nor does the prime minister’s resignation automatically send Britain back to the polls.
Why Would There Be No General Election?
British voters elect members of Parliament rather than voting directly for a prime minister. The prime minister is normally the leader of the party that can command the confidence of a majority in the House of Commons.
Labour won a large parliamentary majority in the July 2024 general election. That majority would remain intact even if Starmer stepped down as party leader and prime minister. The party could therefore choose a new leader, who would then be in a position to form a government using the same Commons majority.
Britain has seen governing parties replace their leaders while remaining in power before, including when Boris Johnson succeeded Theresa May in 2019 and when Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak successively entered Downing Street in 2022.
The immediate contest would consequently take place within the Labour Party, not among the wider electorate.
Could Andy Burnham Become Labour Leader Without A Contest?
Burnham’s preferred route, according to The Guardian, would be to secure such overwhelming support among Labour MPs that no viable rival reaches the ballot.
Under the process, a candidate seeking the Labour leadership would require nominations from at least 20 per cent of the Parliamentary Labour Party. With the threshold currently put at 81 MPs, any challenger unable to secure that number would be eliminated before Labour members were asked to vote.
If Burnham were the only candidate to cross the threshold, he could effectively be installed as Labour leader without a full membership contest.
The key uncertainty is whether former health secretary Wes Streeting or another senior Labour figure would enter the race. Streeting, who resigned from the government last month amid attempts to persuade Starmer to leave, has previously said he possesses the backing of the required 81 MPs and intends to contest the leadership.
Some Labour MPs also believe Burnham’s platform should be tested in a proper election rather than accepted without debate. Should Streeting challenge him, other contenders could be encouraged to enter, including women from the Cabinet seeking to prevent the contest from becoming an exclusively male race.
How Would A Contested Labour Election Work?
Candidates would first have to prove that they possessed sufficient support among Labour MPs. Those clearing the parliamentary threshold would also need nominations from at least 5 per cent of constituency Labour parties or from at least three affiliated organisations, at least two of which must be trade unions.
Eligible candidates would then be placed before Labour’s membership. The party’s National Executive Committee would determine the timetable and would be expected to conduct the process as quickly as possible because Labour is in government.
Starmer’s leadership election in 2020, when Labour was in opposition, lasted about three months. According to The Guardian, the 2025 contest triggered by Angela Rayner’s resignation as deputy leader was concluded in roughly six and a half weeks under the same broad rules.
How Would Burnham Formally Become Prime Minister?
Winning the Labour leadership would not, on its own, formally make Burnham prime minister.
Once Labour had selected its new leader, Starmer would tender his resignation to the King. The monarch would then invite the person best placed to command the confidence of the House of Commons to form a government.
With Labour holding a Commons majority, its newly selected leader would normally be that person. Burnham would accept the King’s invitation, become prime minister and begin appointing his Cabinet.
Starmer Might Remain Until Autumn
The Guardian reports that Burnham’s team favours a September handover, which would give him time to assemble a Downing Street operation and allow the new leader to rally Labour at its annual conference at the end of that month.
One Cabinet minister told the newspaper: “Logically, the best thing for both Andy and Keir would be for that to happen in September. Andy has no team ready to go into Downing Street and needs the time to prepare. It would also allow Keir to establish a flight path to his departure.”
An autumn transfer would also need to take account of preparations for the Budget later in the year. Leaving the change much later could give a new prime minister and chancellor too little time to make major fiscal decisions.
Would Starmer Become A Caretaker Prime Minister?
Starmer would remain prime minister in the full constitutional sense until he formally resigns. He could continue leading the government, representing Britain overseas and taking official decisions.
Politically, however, his authority would be diminished once a departure date had been announced. Attention would increasingly shift towards the leadership contest and the person expected to succeed him, leaving Starmer in a position closer to that of a caretaker than a leader with a long-term programme.
The situation could resemble Theresa May’s final weeks in office. May announced in May 2019 that she would leave the Conservative leadership but remained prime minister until Boris Johnson succeeded her in July. During that period, she continued carrying out official duties and pursued parts of her domestic legacy, including putting Britain’s target of reaching net-zero emissions into law.
Starmer could similarly use his remaining time to complete selected priorities and represent the country internationally, including at the Nato summit expected in July.
What Could Still Disrupt The Handover?
The entire process remains dependent on Starmer confirming that he intends to leave and specifying a timetable. Downing Street had continued to insist as recently as Friday that he stood by his promise to fight any leadership challenge.
The Guardian reported, however, that more than half a dozen Cabinet ministers had privately concluded that his time was over, while the prospect of a hostile Cabinet meeting on Tuesday increased the pressure.
Business Secretary Peter Kyle publicly acknowledged on Sunday that forces within Labour were challenging Starmer. “I don’t want to come on here and be delusional that there is no process, there are no forces at work which are challenging the prime minister as leader. That is clearly the case,” he told the BBC.
Even if Starmer announces an autumn departure, uncertainty would remain over whether Labour can manage an orderly succession. Burnham may be the clear favourite, but a challenge from Streeting or another candidate would trigger a wider contest for the party leadership.
