India is closely monitoring the escalating political and social unrest in Nepal, with top intelligence sources stressing that New Delhi’s primary priority is to prevent any spillover of law-and-order disturbances
across the open border. According to sources, the biggest concern is that unrest in the Himalayan nation could travel into Indian border states, posing challenges to internal security.
Intelligence officials highlight that almost two crore Indians, mainly in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Sikkim, and Uttarakhand, are directly linked to Nepal through family ties, trade relations, and religious connections. “Any disturbance in Nepal will immediately reverberate across these states,” a source said, pointing out that the unrest is not confined to politics but carries wider security implications for India.
Sources note that in the past, especially during the 2015 crisis, India witnessed a surge in illegal activities across border points. Smuggling of fuel had risen by nearly 40 per cent at the time, and officials now fear similar trends if the situation worsens. “Contraband, counterfeit currency, and arms movement tend to spike whenever Nepal’s internal stability falters,” an intelligence official observed, identifying Birganj–Raxaul, Nepalgunj–Bahraich, and Kakarbhitta–Siliguri as the most vulnerable transit corridors.
Despite these risks, New Delhi is determined not to be perceived as interfering in Nepal’s internal affairs. Intelligence inputs suggest that this approach is particularly sensitive given the central role of young protesters in the current movement. “India wants to be seen as neutral, even while safeguarding its interests,” a source said.
At the same time, India is watching the political direction of Nepal’s leadership. Sources emphasise that New Delhi would prefer a leadership acceptable to both the country’s youth and traditional institutions but not one perceived to lean excessively towards Beijing.
On the security front, Indian agencies also underline the importance of long-standing institutional ties with the Nepal Army. “We hold the Nepal Army in great respect, and the connect runs deep, especially through the Gorkha regiments serving in the Indian Army,” an intelligence source noted.
For now, India’s stance, as outlined by its intelligence community, is to remain cautious, neutral, and focused on preventing any destabilising impact on its own soil.
