Gold Price Prediction 2026: Gold prices are firmly back in the spotlight after Goldman Sachs raised its end-2026 gold price forecast to $5,400 per ounce, up from an earlier estimate of $4,900. The upgrade
comes amid sustained buying by private investors and emerging-market central banks, reinforcing gold’s status as the world’s preferred hedge against geopolitical, policy and currency risks.
Spot gold climbed to a record high of $4,887.82 per ounce on Wednesday (January 21) and is already up more than 11% in 2026, extending last year’s blistering 64% rally. However, Gold and silver prices on January 22 turned sharply lower after Trump softened his stance, saying the US had reached an understanding with NATO over Greenland’s future and that tariffs planned for February 1 would not be imposed.
Also Read: Silver, Gold ETFs Crash Over 20%: Will Bullion Prices Decline Further?
With global brokerages turning increasingly bullish, what does this mean for gold prices in India in 2026?
Why Goldman Sachs is bullish on gold
Goldman Sachs said its revised forecast reflects a structural shift in demand rather than a short-term spike.
“We assume private sector diversification buyers, whose purchases hedge global policy risks and have driven the upside surprise to our price forecast, don’t liquidate their gold holdings in 2026, effectively lifting the starting point of our price forecast,” the brokerage said in a note dated Wednesday.
The bank also expects central bank gold purchases to average 60 tonnes in 2026, with emerging-market central banks continuing to diversify foreign-exchange reserves away from the US dollar and into bullion.
This steady institutional demand, combined with geopolitical uncertainty and concerns around fiscal sustainability in major economies, underpins Goldman’s $5,400 call.
Other global banks back the gold bull case
Goldman Sachs is not alone. A growing list of global brokerages expects gold prices to remain elevated well into 2026:
Citi Research has raised its near-term gold target to $5,000 per ounce.
JP Morgan expects gold to average $5,055 per ounce by Q4 2026.
Bank of America has lifted its 2026 gold outlook to $5,000.
Societe Generale also sees gold reaching $5,000 by end-2026.
Commerzbank recently raised its forecast to $4,900, citing rising safe-haven demand.
Even relatively conservative houses such as HSBC and ANZ expect gold to remain well above historical averages through 2026.
What does a $5,400 gold price mean for India?
For Indian investors, global gold prices directly influence domestic rates, alongside currency movements and import duties.
At $5,400 per ounce, gold prices in India could comfortably move beyond Rs 1.60 lakh per 10 grams, assuming the rupee remains broadly stable against the US dollar. Any rupee depreciation would further amplify gains in domestic gold rates.
This has important implications:
Long-term investors may continue to view gold as a portfolio hedge against inflation, currency risk and geopolitical shocks.
Jewellery buyers could face persistently high prices, potentially dampening discretionary demand.
Gold ETFs and sovereign gold bond alternatives may see renewed interest as investors seek exposure without making fresh jewellery purchases.
Key drivers to watch in Gold Rate Prediction 2026
Analysts say three factors will largely determine whether gold reaches bullish forecasts:
Central bank buying: Sustained accumulation by emerging-market central banks remains a powerful structural support.
Global policy uncertainty: Trade tensions, geopolitics and fiscal stress continue to favour safe-haven assets.
Real interest rates: Any decline in real yields, especially into negative territory, could push gold sharply higher.
Will gold prices rise further in 2026?
With spot prices already near record highs and multiple global banks projecting gold above $5,000 per ounce, the broader trend for bullion remains positive. Goldman Sachs’ $5,400 forecast reinforces the view that gold’s rally is being driven by long-term diversification rather than speculative excess.
For India, that suggests gold rates are likely to stay elevated through 2026, with any global shock or currency volatility pushing prices even higher. While short-term corrections are always possible, the balance of risks, according to analysts, still tilts firmly to the upside.
