The US midterm elections are here, and the wait for results is set to stretch well into Wednesday morning in India. With control of both chambers of Congress at stake, the first indications of which party
is gaining the upper hand are expected to emerge as polling stations begin closing across the United States.
The first results are expected to trickle in from 4:30 am IST on Wednesday, November 4, corresponding to 6 pm Eastern Standard Time (EST) on Tuesday. While the final counting of votes could take days or even weeks, projections made through the night are likely to offer an early indication of which party is on course to control Capitol Hill.
Democrats need to win four Republican-held Senate seats and gain three seats in the House of Representatives to flip either chamber. A prolonged counting process, particularly in closely contested races, could work in Republicans’ favour by delaying a clear picture of the outcome.
“If the polls are right, the generic ballot is relatively right, we’re going to be able to project pretty early in the night,” Geoffrey Skelley, chief election analyst at Decision Desk HQ (DDHQ), told The Hill.
Here is a state-by-state timeline of what to watch as polling stations close, converted to Indian Standard Time.
4:30 am IST: First polls close in Kentucky and Indiana
Kentucky and Indiana will be among the first states to see some of their polling stations close at 4:30 am IST. The remaining polling stations in both states will shut an hour later, at 5:30 am IST.
The first couple of hours of counting could be particularly important. Skelley wrote in an October blog post that results from the eastern United States would “drive our initial understanding of what’s happening in the midterms”.
One early indicator to watch is Kentucky’s 6th Congressional District. A Democratic flip here could point towards a wider electoral shift. DDHQ rates the contest between Republican Ralph Alvarado and Democrat Zach Dembo for the seat being vacated by outgoing Republican Representative Andy Barr as a toss-up.
5:30 am IST: Georgia, Virginia and other key states begin reporting
Polling stations will close at 5:30 am IST in Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont, Virginia and most of Florida and New Hampshire. The remaining polling stations in Florida and New Hampshire will close at 6:30 am IST.
West Virginia, Ohio and North Carolina will see their polls close at 6 am IST.
The results from eight states — Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Kentucky, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Virginia — will be particularly revealing, Skelley said. Nearly 50 House races across these states are at least mildly competitive, meaning they are not considered safe for either party.
Florida is expected to be among the quickest states to report results, with early data available soon after polling stations close. The state’s Panhandle region, however, will see polls close at 6:30 am IST.
The results coming in by 6 am IST could offer the first indications of a possible Democratic wave. Democratic victories in states such as Florida, Indiana, Georgia, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina and Virginia would be particularly significant.
“An actual Democratic win in any of these seats would be an electoral earthquake that all but guarantees a Democratic majority,” Skelley estimated. “Republican holds, meanwhile, would only mildly improve the GOP’s majority chances.”
Florida’s election system, which underwent changes following the disputed 2000 presidential election, could provide an early picture of the direction of the race. Skelley told The Hill that the state had developed into “the best in the country” when it came to reporting results.
He suggested that projections could begin to emerge between 5:50 am and 6 am IST, depending on the leads established by candidates.
“If they’re losing in Florida like this,” Skelley said, referring to Republicans, “it’s going to be real hard for Republicans to win”.
However, Florida remains a “mixed bag” for both parties, and results from the state alongside other contests could still leave the overall picture unclear.
Ohio’s four competitive House races will also be worth watching. The outcome in the state’s 7th Congressional District, where Republican Representative Max Miller faces Democrat challengers amid allegations of domestic abuse involving his ex-wife and daughter, could have a bearing on the battle for the House majority.
“A Democratic win would push the party’s majority chances north of 90 percent, while a GOP hold would lower them below 65 percent,” Skelley said.
6:30 am IST: Michigan, Maine and Texas Senate contests enter focus
Several states will see their polling stations close completely at 6:30 am IST. These include Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusetts, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island and Tennessee, along with Washington DC.
Arkansas will see its polls close at 7 am IST.
In Kansas, Michigan, North Dakota, South Dakota and Texas, most polling stations will close at 6:30 am IST, while the remaining ones will shut at 7:30 am IST. The 6:30 am hour is expected to be the busiest of election night.
The results from three closely watched Senate contests will begin to emerge during this period: Republican Mike Rogers against Democrat Abdul El-Sayed in Michigan; Republican Senator Susan Collins against Democrat Troy Jackson in Maine; and Republican Ken Paxton against Democrat James Talarico in Texas.
A Rogers victory in Michigan would be a “massive win” for Republicans as they seek to defend their Senate majority, Skelley noted. Clear Democratic victories in any of these three states, meanwhile, could strengthen the party’s hopes of reclaiming the upper chamber.
7:30 am IST: Iowa, Minnesota and Nebraska in focus
Polling stations will close across Arizona, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, Minnesota, Nebraska, New Mexico, New York, Wisconsin and Wyoming at 7:30 am IST.
Iowa and Minnesota will be particularly important in the Senate battle. Democrats are attempting to win an open Senate seat in Iowa, while Republicans are looking to flip an open seat in Minnesota. Iowa is also a key battleground in the House, with competitive contests that could influence control of Congress.
Nebraska is another state to watch. Independent candidate Dan Osborn is making another bid for the Senate after losing to Republican Senator Deb Fischer by a single-digit margin in the strongly Republican state two years ago.
8:30 am IST: Montana, Nevada and Utah results begin to emerge
Montana, Nevada and Utah will see their polling stations close at 8:30 am IST. Most of Idaho will also close at this time, although some polling stations in the state will remain open until 9:30 am IST.
Oregon will see polling stations close as early as 8:30 am IST in communities in the Mountain time zone, while the rest of the state will close at 9:30 am IST.
Montana’s Senate contest will be worth watching. Independent candidate Seth Bodnar faces Republican Kurt Alme in the race for the open seat being vacated by Republican Senator Steve Daines.
However, Bodnar faces an uphill battle. DDHQ estimated on Monday that Alme had a 77% chance of winning the seat.
By this stage, with most polling stations across the country closed, the balance of power in Congress could begin to come into sharper focus.
9:30 am IST: California and Washington polls close
California and Washington will see their polling stations close at 9:30 am IST, bringing the West Coast into the election-night picture.
The counting process in western states can take longer, particularly in states that conduct much of their voting by mail. California, in particular, allows a longer window for ballots to arrive and be counted after Election Day.
The state’s congressional contests have often played a decisive role in determining control of the House, particularly when the winning party holds only a narrow majority. California’s redrawn congressional map, introduced after the passage of Proposition 50 last year, gives Democrats an opportunity to win at least five seats.
Two races worth watching are California’s 22nd Congressional District, where Republican incumbent David Valadao faces Democrat Randy Villegas, and Washington’s 3rd Congressional District, where Democratic Representative Marie Gluesenkamp Perez is in a close contest against Republican state Senate Minority Leader John Braun.
Both states could see at least one congressional seat change hands.
10:30 am IST onwards: Alaska and Hawaii bring the final poll closures
Hawaii and Alaska will be the last states to close their polling stations, at 10:30 am IST. Some polling stations in Alaska will remain open until 11:30 am IST.
Alaska’s vast geographical spread could mean that the counting process continues well after Election Day. Ballots from remote communities can take days to reach counting centres.
According to Alaska’s Division of Elections, early-voting ballots received at regional election offices through the Thursday before Election Day are counted on election night. Ballots cast from Friday through Election Day are counted seven days later.
Skelley told *The Hill* that there might not be enough information to make projections in Alaska by the end of election night. The final picture of Senate control, he added, could take longer to emerge than the House outcome.
“It’s just a question of how much later,” he said.
When will the US midterm results be declared?
The closure of polling stations does not mean that all votes will be counted immediately. While projections could emerge through the night, close contests, mail-in ballots and state-specific counting rules could delay the final outcome by several days.
The Associated Press called the Senate for Republicans at 12:06 am EST on the day after Election Day in 2024 — or 10:36 am IST on Wednesday. In contrast, the AP took four days to call the Senate in 2022 and 64 days in 2020, when a Georgia runoff election in December ultimately determined control of the chamber.
The House could take even longer. The last time the AP called the House for Democrats on election night was in 2018, at 3 am EST on the following Wednesday. In 2020, it took a week for the chamber to be called, while the 2022 and 2024 elections each took eight days.
For Indian viewers following the results, the first major indications of the political mood are expected between 4:30 am and 7:30 am IST on Wednesday. But a definitive answer on which party controls Congress may take considerably longer.
