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Russia is set to see revenue from its largest single oil tax nearly double to $9 billion in April, driven by the global oil and gas crisis following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, according to
Reuters calculations released on Thursday.
The estimates offer some of the first concrete signs of a financial windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, as the Iran conflict disrupts global energy markets. Oil traders describe the situation as one of the most severe energy crises in recent years.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments — after the airstrikes in late February. The disruption pushed Brent crude prices beyond $100 per barrel.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues are primarily linked to production, with export duties on crude scrapped from early 2024 under a broader tax reform. Based on preliminary output data and oil prices, Reuters estimates that Russia’s mineral extraction tax revenue will rise to around 700 billion roubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion roubles in March and about 10% higher than April last year.
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.
The average price of Russia's Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to economy ministry data.
That was up 73% from February's $44.59 per barrel and above the level of $59 assumed in this year's state budget.
The Kremlin said on Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of different places amid a grave global energy crisis that was shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall for Russia, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in January-March 2026, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
And Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with an aim to cripple Moscow's finances, have also contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts.
With inputs from agencies
The estimates offer some of the first concrete signs of a financial windfall for Russia, the world’s second-largest oil exporter, as the Iran conflict disrupts global energy markets. Oil traders describe the situation as one of the most severe energy crises in recent years.
Iran effectively shut the Strait of Hormuz — a critical route for about one-fifth of global oil and LNG shipments — after the airstrikes in late February. The disruption pushed Brent crude prices beyond $100 per barrel.
Russia’s oil and gas revenues are primarily linked to production, with export duties on crude scrapped from early 2024 under a broader tax reform. Based on preliminary output data and oil prices, Reuters estimates that Russia’s mineral extraction tax revenue will rise to around 700 billion roubles ($9 billion) in April, up from 327 billion roubles in March and about 10% higher than April last year.
For the whole of 2026, Russia has budgeted for 7.9 trillion roubles from the mineral extraction tax.
Russian energy in demand
The average price of Russia's Urals crude, used for taxation, jumped to $77 per barrel in March, its highest since October 2023, according to economy ministry data.
That was up 73% from February's $44.59 per barrel and above the level of $59 assumed in this year's state budget.
The Kremlin said on Tuesday there were a huge number of requests for Russian energy from a range of different places amid a grave global energy crisis that was shaking the foundations of the oil and gas markets.
Still, there are limits on the windfall for Russia, and economists inside Russia have repeatedly cautioned that 2026 could be a tough year.
Russia ran a budget deficit of 4.58 trillion roubles, or 1.9% of gross domestic product, in January-March 2026, the finance ministry said on Wednesday.
And Ukraine's attacks on Russian energy infrastructure, with an aim to cripple Moscow's finances, have also contributed to lower earnings and threaten oil production cuts.
The size of the windfall for Russia will ultimately depend on how long the Iran crisis lasts.
With inputs from agencies
