Prepared under Chief Economic Adviser V. Anantha Nageswaran, the 739-page survey pegs India’s real GDP growth for FY27 in the range of 6.8–7.2 per cent, underscoring the government’s confidence in domestic growth drivers amid global uncertainty.
A reflection of its priorities, the document references the word “growth” nearly 900 times, while artificial intelligence features prominently with 387 mentions, highlighting technology’s growing role in economic policymaking. The survey effectively sets the stage for Sitharaman’s ninth Union Budget, expected to outline the government’s next phase of reform and fiscal strategy.
Here are the key takeaways from the survey:
GDP growth outlook: India’s economy is estimated to grow 7.4 per cent in FY26, retaining its position as the fastest-growing major economy, with FY27 growth projected at 6.8–7.2 per cent and potential growth pegged at around 7 per cent.
Consumption drives momentum: Private final consumption expenditure (PFCE) has risen to 61.5 per cent of GDP, supported by easing inflation, stable employment, and rising real incomes, pointing to broad-based domestic demand.
Investment cycle intact: Gross fixed capital formation (GFCF) stands at 30 per cent of GDP, with investment expanding 7.6 per cent in the first half of FY26, remaining above pre-pandemic averages. Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) stands at 30.0 per cent of GDP; investment grew 7.6 per cent in H1 FY26, above the pre-pandemic average of 7.1 per cent.
Manufacturing shows strength: Manufacturing grew 8.4 per cent in H1 FY26, outperforming the full-year estimate, while construction activity remained resilient on sustained public infrastructure spending and GST rationalisation.
Services remain the main engine: Services GVA rose 9.3 per cent in the first half of FY26, with most sub-sectors expanding above 9 per cent, underlining services’ central role in growth.
Agriculture steady: Agriculture and allied sectors are estimated to grow 3.1 per cent, aided by a favourable monsoon, with allied activities such as livestock and fisheries providing stability.
Inflation eases sharply: Headline CPI inflation moderated to 1.7 per cent, driven largely by food price correction, boosting real purchasing power; the inflation outlook remains benign.
Exports hit a record: India’s total exports touched a record $825.3 billion in FY25, with services exports cushioning the impact of global trade uncertainty and higher tariffs.
External buffers are comfortable: The current account deficit stood at 0.8 per cent of GDP in H1 FY26, while forex reserves cover over 11 months of imports, providing a strong liquidity cushion.
Tax buoyancy: Direct tax collections reached ~53 per cent of budgeted target by November 2025; gross GST collections recorded multiple all-time highs during FY26.
Banking health: Gross NPAs declined to a multi-decade low of 2.2 per cent; the half-yearly slippage ratio was stable at 0.7 per cent.
Current account: CAD remained moderate at 0.8 per cent of GDP in H1 FY26, supported by services surplus and remittances.
External buffers: Forex reserves cover over 11 months of imports and about 94 per cent of external debt (as of Sept 2025).
Global risks flagged: The survey warns of geopolitical tensions, trade fragmentation, and volatile capital flows, even as domestic fundamentals remain stable. “With domestic drivers playing a dominant role and macroeconomic stability well anchored, the balance of risks around growth remains broadly even,” the Economic Survey said
