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The Mexican government is internally reviewing whether to continue shipping oil to Cuba, amid mounting concern within President Claudia Sheinbaum’s administration that the policy could provoke retaliation from the United States under President Donald Trump, Reuters reported on Friday, citing sources familiar with the discussions.
The review comes at a moment of acute stress for Cuba, which is facing severe fuel shortages and widespread power blackouts after Venezuelan oil supplies, long the island’s main lifeline, were abruptly cut off following a US blockade of tankers and the dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.
With Venezuelan shipments halted, Mexico has effectively emerged as Cuba’s single-largest oil supplier. That position has placed Mexico squarely in Washington’s line of sight.
Trump has repeatedly signalled a hardening approach toward Havana. In a January 11 post on his Truth Social, the US president said “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!” He has also said Cuba is “ready to fall,” language that has reverberated through diplomatic and energy circles across the region.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has sought to project continuity. She has said Mexico will keep supplying oil to Cuba under long-term contracts, framing the shipments as international aid and an expression of solidarity with the Cuban people. Privately, however, senior officials told Reuters the policy is under active review, with anxiety growing that continued shipments could antagonise Trump at a sensitive time in bilateral relations.
Mexico is currently seeking to negotiate a review of the USMCA North American trade pact, while also attempting to convince Washington that it is doing enough to combat powerful drug cartels. At the same time, Sheinbaum has drawn a firm line against any unilateral US military action on Mexican soil, a prospect Trump has openly raised in recent weeks.
According to the report, all options are being considered inside the Mexican government: a complete halt to oil shipments to Cuba, a partial reduction, or maintaining current volumes.
“The fear is not abstract,” the report said, pointing to Trump’s willingness to use trade, sanctions and even military threats as leverage. “There is a growing fear that the United States could take unilateral action on our territory.”
The Mexican presidency told Reuters the country “has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba,” adding that oil shipments and a separate agreement to pay for Cuban doctors working in Mexico are “sovereign decisions.”
A White House official told Reuters: “As the President stated, Cuba is now failing on its own volition ... there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba from Venezuela, and he strongly suggests Cuba makes a deal before it is too late.”
The issue of oil shipments reportedly came up directly in a recent phone call between Trump and Sheinbaum. According to the report, Trump questioned the Mexican president about both the fuel deliveries to Cuba and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors working in Mexico under a bilateral agreement.
Sheinbaum responded that the oil shipments constitute humanitarian aid and that the doctors’ programme fully complies with Mexican law. The report said Trump did not explicitly demand an end to the oil deliveries, but his questioning underscored Washington’s scrutiny.
Mexican officials are also increasingly uneasy about what they see as a growing US military and surveillance footprint in the region. Since December, local media have reported — using flight-tracking data — that US Navy Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have carried out multiple flights over the Bay of Campeche, roughly mirroring the route taken by tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba.
Similar reconnaissance aircraft were spotted off Venezuela’s coast in December, days before US action there disrupted Caracas’ oil exports.
At the same time, Trump has escalated rhetoric against Mexican drug cartels, claiming the country is “run by the cartels” and suggesting US ground attacks could be imminent. Sheinbaum has responded by launching a high-profile offensive against organised crime, including the unprecedented transfer of nearly 100 senior drug traffickers to the United States.
Yet she has also repeatedly warned that unilateral US military action inside Mexico would represent a grave breach of sovereignty and a red line for her government.
For Cuba, the stakes are existential. The island relies heavily on imported refined fuel for electricity generation, transport and aviation. Years of US sanctions, combined with a deep economic crisis, have left Havana unable to purchase sufficient fuel on international markets, forcing it to depend on a narrow circle of allies.
Trump’s renewed pressure campaign echoes his first term, when he rolled back much of the historic rapprochement with Cuba pursued under former US president Barack Obama. Since returning to office a year ago, Trump has tightened the screws further, encouraged by hardliners such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who see cutting off Cuba’s energy supplies as a way to weaken Havana and its allies.
Cuba’s leadership and security apparatus remain deeply entrenched, and the country has endured decades of economic embargo. Still, Washington’s focus on disrupting sanctioned oil trade — including the seizure of so-called “shadow fleet” tankers linked to Venezuela, Iran and Russia — has made it increasingly difficult for Havana to find alternative suppliers.
According to disclosures by Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Mexico shipped an average of 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and about 2,000 barrels per day of refined products to Cuba between January and September last year, worth roughly $400 million.
Within Sheinbaum’s government, some officials argue that cutting off Cuba’s remaining oil supplies could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, accelerating economic collapse and prompting a new wave of mass migration — much of it potentially heading toward Mexico.
With Venezuelan supplies stopped and few other producers willing to step in under the glare of US pressure, Mexico’s decision could prove pivotal. For now, the debate inside Mexico City reflects a broader dilemma facing US allies and neighbours: how to balance humanitarian commitments, regional stability and national sovereignty against the risk of crossing a US administration increasingly willing to wield its power unilaterally.
The review comes at a moment of acute stress for Cuba, which is facing severe fuel shortages and widespread power blackouts after Venezuelan oil supplies, long the island’s main lifeline, were abruptly cut off following a US blockade of tankers and the dramatic capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro earlier this month.
With Venezuelan shipments halted, Mexico has effectively emerged as Cuba’s single-largest oil supplier. That position has placed Mexico squarely in Washington’s line of sight.
Trump has repeatedly signalled a hardening approach toward Havana. In a January 11 post on his Truth Social, the US president said “THERE WILL BE NO MORE OIL OR MONEY GOING TO CUBA — ZERO!” He has also said Cuba is “ready to fall,” language that has reverberated through diplomatic and energy circles across the region.
Publicly, Sheinbaum has sought to project continuity. She has said Mexico will keep supplying oil to Cuba under long-term contracts, framing the shipments as international aid and an expression of solidarity with the Cuban people. Privately, however, senior officials told Reuters the policy is under active review, with anxiety growing that continued shipments could antagonise Trump at a sensitive time in bilateral relations.
Delicate moment for Mexico–US ties
Mexico is currently seeking to negotiate a review of the USMCA North American trade pact, while also attempting to convince Washington that it is doing enough to combat powerful drug cartels. At the same time, Sheinbaum has drawn a firm line against any unilateral US military action on Mexican soil, a prospect Trump has openly raised in recent weeks.
According to the report, all options are being considered inside the Mexican government: a complete halt to oil shipments to Cuba, a partial reduction, or maintaining current volumes.
“The fear is not abstract,” the report said, pointing to Trump’s willingness to use trade, sanctions and even military threats as leverage. “There is a growing fear that the United States could take unilateral action on our territory.”
The Mexican presidency told Reuters the country “has always been in solidarity with the people of Cuba,” adding that oil shipments and a separate agreement to pay for Cuban doctors working in Mexico are “sovereign decisions.”
A White House official told Reuters: “As the President stated, Cuba is now failing on its own volition ... there will be no more oil or money going to Cuba from Venezuela, and he strongly suggests Cuba makes a deal before it is too late.”
Oil, doctors and a tense phone call
The issue of oil shipments reportedly came up directly in a recent phone call between Trump and Sheinbaum. According to the report, Trump questioned the Mexican president about both the fuel deliveries to Cuba and the presence of thousands of Cuban doctors working in Mexico under a bilateral agreement.
Sheinbaum responded that the oil shipments constitute humanitarian aid and that the doctors’ programme fully complies with Mexican law. The report said Trump did not explicitly demand an end to the oil deliveries, but his questioning underscored Washington’s scrutiny.
Drones, tankers and regional pressure
Mexican officials are also increasingly uneasy about what they see as a growing US military and surveillance footprint in the region. Since December, local media have reported — using flight-tracking data — that US Navy Northrop Grumman MQ-4C Triton drones have carried out multiple flights over the Bay of Campeche, roughly mirroring the route taken by tankers carrying Mexican fuel to Cuba.
Similar reconnaissance aircraft were spotted off Venezuela’s coast in December, days before US action there disrupted Caracas’ oil exports.
At the same time, Trump has escalated rhetoric against Mexican drug cartels, claiming the country is “run by the cartels” and suggesting US ground attacks could be imminent. Sheinbaum has responded by launching a high-profile offensive against organised crime, including the unprecedented transfer of nearly 100 senior drug traffickers to the United States.
Yet she has also repeatedly warned that unilateral US military action inside Mexico would represent a grave breach of sovereignty and a red line for her government.
Cuba’s shrinking energy lifeline
For Cuba, the stakes are existential. The island relies heavily on imported refined fuel for electricity generation, transport and aviation. Years of US sanctions, combined with a deep economic crisis, have left Havana unable to purchase sufficient fuel on international markets, forcing it to depend on a narrow circle of allies.
Trump’s renewed pressure campaign echoes his first term, when he rolled back much of the historic rapprochement with Cuba pursued under former US president Barack Obama. Since returning to office a year ago, Trump has tightened the screws further, encouraged by hardliners such as Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who see cutting off Cuba’s energy supplies as a way to weaken Havana and its allies.
Cuba’s leadership and security apparatus remain deeply entrenched, and the country has endured decades of economic embargo. Still, Washington’s focus on disrupting sanctioned oil trade — including the seizure of so-called “shadow fleet” tankers linked to Venezuela, Iran and Russia — has made it increasingly difficult for Havana to find alternative suppliers.
According to disclosures by Mexico’s state-owned oil company Pemex to the US Securities and Exchange Commission, Mexico shipped an average of 17,200 barrels per day of crude oil and about 2,000 barrels per day of refined products to Cuba between January and September last year, worth roughly $400 million.
Migration fears and hard choices
Within Sheinbaum’s government, some officials argue that cutting off Cuba’s remaining oil supplies could trigger a humanitarian catastrophe, accelerating economic collapse and prompting a new wave of mass migration — much of it potentially heading toward Mexico.
With Venezuelan supplies stopped and few other producers willing to step in under the glare of US pressure, Mexico’s decision could prove pivotal. For now, the debate inside Mexico City reflects a broader dilemma facing US allies and neighbours: how to balance humanitarian commitments, regional stability and national sovereignty against the risk of crossing a US administration increasingly willing to wield its power unilaterally.
