What is the story about?
Two issues terrify US President Donald Trump. One, full disclosure of the Epstein Files. Two, the upcoming midterm elections to the Senate and the House of Representatives.
Only a fraction of emails, texts and notes — all heavily redacted— from paedophile Epstein have been released so far by the Trump administration’s Department of Justice (DoJ).
Epstein died in prison in 2019 of suspected suicide. Trump says he snapped ties with Epstein when he discovered his criminal use of underage girls. But a full account of Trump’s frequent social meetings with Epstein could alienate his MAGA base which has been demanding complete disclosure of the Epstein documents.
The second issue that worries Trump is the prospect of being impeached by the House of Representatives if the Republicans lose control of the House in the November 2026 Congressional elections.
Trump has already been impeached twice but it could be different this time around. Republicans hold a razor-thin majority of two seats in the House. With Trump’s opinion poll numbers plunging, the likelihood of the House falling to the Democrats is real.
Unlike other midterm years, the full 435-member House is up for re-election in 2026. In previous Congressional midterm elections, the incumbent party has invariably lost seats to the Opposition. With a slender two-seat majority Republicans are staring at defeat and the prospect of Trump losing control of his agenda, especially on intervention in foreign wars which the “America First” movement despises.
In the Senate, Trump’s 53-47 majority might be whittled down to 51-49 – or worse. Losing both the House and the Senate would spell the beginning of the end of the Trump era.
Trump can’t stand for a third term. He has taken top legal advice on how he can circumvent the 22nd amendment to the US Constitution that prohibits a third presidential term. He has been told bluntly that he can’t.
If Trump is impeached again, he could face legal jeopardy when his term as president ends in January 2029. Trump can pardon himself but could still face legal challenges. If the full Epstein files are released, criminal charges would follow. Whether a presidential self-pardon can grant Trump immunity is debatable.
Trump’s foreign and domestic policies have meanwhile succeeded in disrupting the historic relationship between Europe and the US while alienating a part of both his MAGA base and independent voters aghast at the violent tactics of Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) agents. Trump’s aggressive push to take over Greenland from fellow-NATO member Denmark could further scar NATO and US-Europe ties.
According to Senator Jeanne Shaheen, Trump’s threat to attack Greenland is a ploy to distract attention from the real issues that his administration faces: “The cost of living is a real concern for Americans and Donald Trump got elected saying he was going to address the cost of living. He was going to address domestic issues, he was going to end forever wars, and he’s not done any of that, so people are frustrated with him.
“Also, as you may have followed the Epstein files, the paedophile in the US, it’s been quite an issue, particularly in the Republican party and among Donald Trump’s followers. And you know Trump is a master of having a problem over here and saying ‘Oh no, don’t pay attention to this problem. Look over here at this shiny object that I want people to focus on’.”
The US Supreme Court is scheduled to pass a ruling on Trump’s trade tariffs. The chances of the verdict going against Trump’s arbitrary tariffs are high. In that event, the US treasury would legally have to refund an estimated $150 billion which US Customs has collected against tariffs since they came into force last year. Since the tariffs were paid by US importers, who passed on part of the cost to US consumers, refunds will be a logistical nightmare.
For Trump it would be a stinging rebuke. US officials say they have other means to impose trade tariffs. But these have only temporary validity.
As CNBC TV18 reported: “Section 232 of the Trade Expansion Act of 1962 gives the president the power to use tariffs to regulate the import of goods on national security grounds. There’s no cap on the level of the duties or their duration.
“But these tariffs can’t be imposed instantly — the president can only act after an investigation by the Commerce Department determines that importing these products threatens to impair national security. After a probe is initiated, the Commerce Secretary must report the conclusions to the president within 270 days. Unlike the blanket tariffs Trump imposed, Section 232 is designed to be applied to imports in individual sectors, rather than from entire countries.”
There are several other sections under the Trade Act of 1962 that allow the president to impose tariffs. None of these sections authorise the president to impose the arbitrary tariffs Trump has.
Trump set himself up as the “peace president” who stopped eight wars. But the two biggest wars continue to rage: Ukraine and Gaza. To the mix has been added Venezuela, Iran, Greenland, Cuba and Colombia. Instead of stopping wars, Trump could end up as the US president who started more wars than any other in modern history.
While further disclosure of the Epstein files could hobble his presidency, the November 2026 Congressional midterm elections remain Trump’s biggest worry. Losing control of the House will have existential consequences.
The US has not been this divided since the 1861-65 Civil War over slavery. The White supremacist government that Trump has assembled could meet the same electoral fate in 2026 as the White supremacist slave owners did in the 19th century Civil War.
(The writer is an editor, author and publisher. Views expressed in the above piece are personal and solely those of the author. They do not necessarily reflect Firstpost’s views.)
