All eyes will be on Trump, who will address the WEF on Thursday. Last year, he set the tone for his second term with a speech that berated Europe and Nato and praised Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
In its report ahead of the gathering, Eurasia Group described the United States as “the principal source of global risk in 2026”.
For Europe and its security architecture that rests on Nato, the threats are indeed existential. With his moves on Denmark’s Greenland island —escalated by the announcement of a tariff on countries opposing his intent to occupy the territory — Trump has risked unravelling the alliance.
Since Trump’s first term, the United States has been increasingly unwilling to “continue to lead on the values and on the policies that it had in the postwar order”, including acting as “the global policeman” or “the principal architect of free trade” or “the promoter of rule of law or democracy, even though it did those things sometimes hypocritically and not always well”, Eurasia Group President Ian Bremmer told The New York Times.
Bremmer further said that “no other country or group of countries would be able and willing to replace the United States for a period of time”.
This means that as the United States has retreated from the world order it helped shape for decades, no one stands ready to uphold it. That gives Trump and his newfound partners in Beijing and Moscow an opportunity to reshape the new world order to their will. The WEF is set to hold talks about this shift.
US and European analysts and former policymakers told The Times that the topics are likely to include Russia’s war with Ukraine, prospects for global trade and markets, the probability of China invading Taiwan, and the risks of a West Asia flare-up caused by recent protests in Iran.
Trump is returning to the WEF more powerful than ever. At home, his far-right agenda is being implemented relentlessly. Abroad, he has just ousted a leader he did not like and is on his way to annex a sovereign people’s island. In foreign policy, he has shaken hands with Putin and Xi after condemning Nato. As the rules-based world order stands battered by Trump’s actions, it remains to be seen how world leaders and analysts will discuss it at the WEF.
