More students are graduating with first-class degrees at English universities than can be explained by their prior academic attainment, intensifying national concerns about grade inflation and the declining value of degrees.
According to a Financial Times report, data published on Thursday by the Office for Students (OfS) shows the largest unexplained increase in top grades since 2010–11, with Durham University and the University of East London recording the biggest rises.
Regulators said almost two-thirds more first-class degrees were awarded than could be accounted for by factors such as A-level results and student backgrounds.
The findings have added momentum to a growing debate about falling academic standards in higher education.
The OfS warned that universities must do more to protect degree quality, arguing that the bar may have been lowered as institutions face mounting financial pressures, compete for students and seek to climb league tables.
In the 2023–24 academic year, 28.8 per cent of graduates received first-class degrees. While this marked a slight fall of 0.8 percentage points from the post-pandemic peak, the proportion remains historically high, reported Financial Times.
The share of first-class degrees awarded in 2023–24 was almost double the level of 2010–11, yet OfS modelling — based on A-level results, subject mix and other factors — suggests only 17.7 per cent of students should have achieved firsts. The regulator said improved teaching may explain only a small part of the rise, added the report.
Unexplained increases in first-class degrees
Some universities have seen far sharper increases than others.
At the University of East London, the proportion of firsts rose from 10.9 per cent in 2010–11 to 35.7 per cent in 2023–24. At Durham University, the share climbed from 18.4 per cent to 39.6 per cent over the same period.
Despite their contrasting profiles — Durham is a Russell Group institution regularly ranked in the world’s top 100, while East London is a former polytechnic focused on applied subjects — the OfS found they recorded the largest unexplained increases in first-class degrees among 142 English higher education providers.
Josh Fleming, the OfS’s director of strategy and delivery, told the Financial Times that the sector had made progress in tackling grade inflation but warned “there is much more to be done” to maintain public confidence.
“Students, employers and the public need to have confidence that degrees accurately reflect attainment,” he was quoted as saying.
The analysis used statistical modelling to calculate unexplained attainment and standardise results across institutions and academic years. It also showed that at the University of Buckingham, the share of firsts has risen from 17 per cent to more than 50 per cent since 2010–11 — the largest increase among long-established providers.
Sam Freedman, a former government education adviser, said universities faced “strong incentives to inflate grades”, with uneven effects across institutions and even departments.
“Accurate grading between institutions is important to ensure fairness for graduates,” he told FT.
Almost all universities now award more firsts than in 2010, including Oxford, where the share has risen to 34.1 per cent, and Cambridge, at 33.3 per cent. The OfS estimates that in nearly every case, part of the increase is unexplained.
Only a small number of institutions, including Birmingham City and Oxford Brookes, awarded fewer firsts than expected.
Universities UK said institutions had taken “significant action” to protect degree standards and remained committed to safeguarding their value. The OfS noted that unexplained rises could partly reflect pandemic-related changes or improvements in teaching.
The University of East London said its “careers-first” approach was unlocking student potential, while Durham said its rise in unexplained attainment was below the sector average and that its degrees reflected the quality of its students and research-led teaching.
