What is the story about?
As Democrats look to avoid the mistakes of the 2024 election, they face a critical question: Should Kamala Harris get a second chance?
With Harris as his opponent, Donald Trump secured the biggest victory in decades by winning all the battleground states and the popular vote as well. While Harris’ supporters have blamed the result on the short campaign caused by Joe Biden’s late exit, others have attributed the loss to Harris’ candidature and argued that there had been no primary capable of finding the party the best possible candidate.
What complicates the picture, however, is that Harris does have a strong presence in some influential pockets of Democratic voters and has attracted renewed attention lately. Her polling numbers are also decent.
In a YouGov America survey earlier this month, Harris emerged as the favourite of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents to be the presidential nominee in 2028 with 20 per cent support. California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is also seen as a potential candidate, ranked second with 17 per cent support.
But support among Democrats does not guarantee support in the broader electorate. Harris has not been able to strike a chord with white men, a demographic that the Democratic Party has lost to the Republican Party in large numbers in recent years.
For one, many see Harris as an extension of Biden, whose final months in office were plagued by concerns about his physical and mental health. He continues to be blamed for the 2024 loss, particularly for his late exit from the race.
Yet Harris remains hugely popular among Black voters — particularly Black women, who are among the Democratic Party’s staunchest supporters.
Lately, Harris has picked up support in southern states during a tour. Axios has reported that she has drawn thousands of people to packed auditoriums in New Orleans, Jackson, and Memphis as part of her recently expanded book tour.
Memphis Mayor Paul Young called Harris “a trailblazer” whom “many of us look up to”, according to Axios.
In Jackson, Mayor John Horhn dramatically bowed before Harris and said: “You don’t know how much you mean to Mississippi. You don’t know how much you mean to America.”
In an article for Axios, Alex Thompson noted that no potential candidate has spent as much time in southern states as Harris in the run-up to the primaries. One expert said that the support of southern states is essential for any candidate to secure the nomination.
“When Black voters broke for Barack Obama starting in South Carolina, he couldn’t be beat because so much of the primary goes through the Black Belt and those southern states. If you can’t compete with Harris with Black voters, you can’t win the South,” pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on Obama’s presidential campaigns, told Axios.
But there are concerns that Harris’ path to the nomination may not lead to election victory. Thompson noted that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee could help Harris win the Democratic nomination, but all three states are likely to go to the Republican candidate in the 2028 general election — Vice President JD Vance is the presumptive nominee for the 2029 election if Trump does not stand for a third term.
With Harris as his opponent, Donald Trump secured the biggest victory in decades by winning all the battleground states and the popular vote as well. While Harris’ supporters have blamed the result on the short campaign caused by Joe Biden’s late exit, others have attributed the loss to Harris’ candidature and argued that there had been no primary capable of finding the party the best possible candidate.
What complicates the picture, however, is that Harris does have a strong presence in some influential pockets of Democratic voters and has attracted renewed attention lately. Her polling numbers are also decent.
In a YouGov America survey earlier this month, Harris emerged as the favourite of Democrats and Democrat-leaning Independents to be the presidential nominee in 2028 with 20 per cent support. California Governor Gavin Newsom, who is also seen as a potential candidate, ranked second with 17 per cent support.
Jan 9-14 poll of 2,250 U.S. adult citizens (+/-2.8 points)
% of Democrats and Democratic-leaning Independents whose ideal choice for the 2028 Democratic presidential nominee is:
Harris 20%
Newsom 17%
Ocasio-Cortez 9%
Buttigieg 8%
Sanders 7%
Kelly 7%
(Link in reply)
— YouGov America (@YouGovAmerica) January 15, 2026
But support among Democrats does not guarantee support in the broader electorate. Harris has not been able to strike a chord with white men, a demographic that the Democratic Party has lost to the Republican Party in large numbers in recent years.
Harris has attracted support lately — but concerns persist
For one, many see Harris as an extension of Biden, whose final months in office were plagued by concerns about his physical and mental health. He continues to be blamed for the 2024 loss, particularly for his late exit from the race.
Yet Harris remains hugely popular among Black voters — particularly Black women, who are among the Democratic Party’s staunchest supporters.
Lately, Harris has picked up support in southern states during a tour. Axios has reported that she has drawn thousands of people to packed auditoriums in New Orleans, Jackson, and Memphis as part of her recently expanded book tour.
Memphis Mayor Paul Young called Harris “a trailblazer” whom “many of us look up to”, according to Axios.
In Jackson, Mayor John Horhn dramatically bowed before Harris and said: “You don’t know how much you mean to Mississippi. You don’t know how much you mean to America.”
In an article for Axios, Alex Thompson noted that no potential candidate has spent as much time in southern states as Harris in the run-up to the primaries. One expert said that the support of southern states is essential for any candidate to secure the nomination.
“When Black voters broke for Barack Obama starting in South Carolina, he couldn’t be beat because so much of the primary goes through the Black Belt and those southern states. If you can’t compete with Harris with Black voters, you can’t win the South,” pollster Cornell Belcher, who worked on Obama’s presidential campaigns, told Axios.
But there are concerns that Harris’ path to the nomination may not lead to election victory. Thompson noted that Louisiana, Mississippi, and Tennessee could help Harris win the Democratic nomination, but all three states are likely to go to the Republican candidate in the 2028 general election — Vice President JD Vance is the presumptive nominee for the 2029 election if Trump does not stand for a third term.
