Budget 2026 expectations for gold and silver: Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman is set to present this year's Union Budget today, February 1, marking
her ninth consecutive Budget speech. For the first time in recent history, the Indian Union Budget will be presented on Sunday.
Precious metals saw wild swings following the massive sell-off on January 30, which saw silver down by nearly 20 per cent—a drop of over Rs 1 lakh in a single session, the biggest ever on the MCX—and gold also experiencing its largest single-day fall in 13 years, down 12 per cent, investors are now nervous and looking for direction.
The Multi Commodity Exchange of India (MCX) will remain open for trading in a special session today as the government will present the Union Budget 2026. The exchange will conduct live trading sessions according to standard market timings.
With the budget approaching, let's revisit the fact that India's gold and silver imports reached record highs last year, raising concerns among policymakers as the government struggles to curb imports despite rising prices. Gold imports rose by 1.6 per cent to 58.9 billion in 2025, while silver imports surged by 44 per cent to 9.2 billion.
Read More: Budget 2026 Live Updates
The question is, will India increase import duties on these safe-haven assets, and what are the expectations for gold and silver in Budget 2026?
Budget 2026 expectations for gold
Sharing his view on the current trend with ET Now Swadesh, GSC Chairman Rajesh explained that whenever gold prices move up sharply, sales feel a temporary slowdown as customers hesitate. This time, however, the story is slightly different. Prices were expected to cross the 2000 dollar mark and then cool off, but no such correction came. Instead, gold kept climbing, and even at elevated levels, people are stepping in.
Rajesh believes the risk is increasing with each new high. Gold has already seen a sharp weekly move of roughly 300 to 450 dollars. At these levels, he is not comfortable recommending aggressive fresh buying.
Budget 2026 expectations for silver
Silver prices were rising even faster than gold. So what's behind this surge and subsequent fall, and what should ordinary investors know now?
Amid weak global trends and a strengthening US dollar, silver prices fell sharply on Friday, dropping to around Rs 20,000 per kilogram due to heavy profit-booking by investors. The price of silver fell by nearly 5 per cent, settling at Rs 3,84,500 per kilogram (including all taxes).
In the previous trading session, silver prices surged by Rs 19,500 to reach a record high of Rs 4,04,500 per kilogram. So, how much further can the price fall, and what strategy should investors in silver ETFs adopt? Ajay Kedia, Director of Kedia Advisory, shared an exclusive strategy with ET Now Swadesh.
Ajay Kedia said that January 2026 proved historic for precious metals. During this period, gold prices surged about 28 per cent, something that has happened only once before in the last 100 years -- in January 1980. Silver delivered an even more surprising performance, rising nearly 70 per cent in a single month, said to be the biggest jump in its history.
Why are traders expecting an increase in import duties?
Gold and silver prices are hitting record highs and with this in place import values could surge even if volumes remain steady, raising concerns over a widening trade deficit and further rupee weakness, as per Reuters.
Trade and industry officials suggest the government may raise import duties on these metals in the coming weeks. In 2012 and 2013, duty hikes on gold helped stabilise the rapidly depreciating rupee. Traders now speculate a similar move may reverse the 2024 duty cuts, when import taxes were reduced from 15 per cent to 6 per cent to curb smuggling, said the Reuters report. Gold and silver are already trading at a premium to global benchmarks, reflecting expectations of higher duties.
(Disclaimer: The above article is meant for informational purposes only, and should not be considered as any investment advice. ET NOW DIGITAL suggests its readers/audience to consult their financial advisors before making any money related decisions.)
