Succession Unclear
Unlike Venezuela, where a clear acting president, Delcy Rodriguez, stepped into power after Nicolas Maduro's removal, Cuba's leadership transition is far
less defined. There isn't a readily available deputy to President Miguel Diaz-Canel or former President Raúl Castro, who himself is facing US indictment. Experts point out that Cuba's security apparatus has systematically suppressed any potential alternative power bases, a stark contrast to Venezuela, which had a prominent opposition figure in Nobel laureate María Corina Machado. While Raúl Rodriguez Castro, grandson of the former president, has had rare meetings with the CIA director, he holds no formal government role and is not anticipated to undermine his family's legacy, as evidenced by his participation in a protest against his grandfather's indictment. This lack of a clear, empowered opposition figure, coupled with a tightly controlled internal power structure, sets Cuba apart from Venezuela's situation.
Benefits and Risks
Cuba's long-standing antagonism with the US, stemming from the 1959 revolution, is fueled by a significant Cuban-American voting bloc in Florida pushing for regime change. However, Cuba's geopolitical importance has waned since the Soviet era, and its economic struggles limit its capacity to challenge the US. Furthermore, any instability in Cuba could trigger a significant migration crisis, as its population, already grappling with power outages due to the US blockade, might flee in large numbers during times of conflict or chaos. The Cuban military is considered more ideologically unified and prepared for resistance than Venezuela's, having potentially learned from the Venezuelan operation. Cuba's advanced surveillance and intelligence capabilities, honed through cooperation with Russia and China, also present a more formidable deterrent. These factors, combined with Cuba's diminished economic clout, present a different risk-reward calculus for any external intervention compared to Venezuela.
Cuban Assets for US
Venezuela's allure for the US stems partly from its substantial natural resources, particularly oil, with American companies eager to capitalize on its production and exports. Cuba, however, lacks comparable natural wealth. Its state-controlled tourism sector, already struggling with pricing and quality issues before the global downturn exacerbated by US sanctions, shortages, and fuel tariff threats, offers little economic incentive. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, a vocal proponent of the Trump administration's Cuba policy, faces a dilemma. While a successful regime change could boost his political aspirations, a failure carries significant risks, especially given current US budget constraints and ongoing military engagements. The economic proposition for the US in Cuba is far less attractive than in Venezuela, making the potential gains more ambiguous and the risks more pronounced.
Legal and Economic Hurdles
US policy towards Cuba is significantly constrained by the 1996 Helms-Burton Act, which mandates specific political reforms, including democratic elections, before the US embargo can be lifted. Unlike Venezuela, where changes to business relations were enacted by removing Maduro without explicit plans for elections, legally altering relations with Cuba requires cooperation from Cuban officials, which has not been forthcoming. Cuba's economic structure, dominated by the military conglomerate Gaesa which controls key sectors like tourism, banking, and commerce, is subject to US sanctions, complicating any straightforward shift. Additionally, while the US cited 'narcoterrorism' to justify its actions in Venezuela, Cuban officials have not faced similar accusations and, in fact, claim to cooperate with the US on anti-drug efforts, further differentiating the legal justifications and pathways for US action.
