What's Happening?
A new study by Roland Berger, titled “The 2040 Technology Gameplan,” forecasts that 30 emerging technology fields, including AI systems, data centers, semiconductors, energy storage, quantum technologies, and humanoid robotics, will drive the next major
wave of global economic growth. These future markets are projected to exceed EUR 20 trillion in value by 2040, a nearly tenfold increase from their current size. Their share of global industrial value creation is expected to rise from approximately 9% today to 37% by 2040, accounting for over one-third of global industrial output. The study highlights that while Europe possesses the necessary technologies and talent to compete for global leadership in several fields, it currently lacks a clear industrial strategy. Existing European initiatives, such as the AI Act, the EU Battery Regulation, and the European Chips Act, have not fully met their ambitions, according to the report.
Why It's Important?
The projected growth of these future technology markets to over EUR 20 trillion by 2040 signifies a massive shift in global economic power and industrial output. For the U.S., this represents both an opportunity and a challenge. The U.S. is actively promoting and supporting key future technologies, positioning itself to capture a significant share of this market. However, the study's emphasis on Europe's potential, if it develops a cohesive strategy, suggests increased competition in these critical sectors. The U.S. stands to gain from its current leadership in areas like AI and semiconductors, but a more unified European approach could intensify the race for technological dominance and market share. The development of these technologies will impact various U.S. industries, from manufacturing and energy to healthcare and defense, influencing job creation, economic growth, and national security.
What's Next?
The Roland Berger study calls for EU-wide initiatives to enable scale, encourage greater risk-taking, and provide long-term certainty for emerging markets. This suggests that Europe may intensify its efforts to develop a more coherent industrial strategy to compete with the U.S. and China. For U.S. companies and policymakers, this could mean facing a more formidable European competitor in key technology sectors. The study also emphasizes the critical role of industry, urging companies to make larger investments in future technologies, accelerate commercialization, and prioritize competitiveness and scaling over technical perfection. This implies a continued focus on innovation and market leadership will be crucial for U.S. businesses to maintain their competitive edge in these rapidly expanding global markets.
Beyond the Headlines
The study's findings underscore a broader global competition for technological supremacy and economic influence. The push for a unified European strategy, if successful, could lead to a more multipolar technological landscape, potentially altering global supply chains and trade relationships. For the U.S., this could necessitate a re-evaluation of its own strategies to ensure continued leadership in critical emerging technologies. The ethical and societal implications of advancements in AI, quantum technologies, and humanoid robotics are also significant, raising questions about job displacement, data privacy, and the responsible development of powerful new tools. The long-term shifts triggered by these developments will extend beyond economic metrics, influencing geopolitical dynamics and the very nature of work and society.
