What's Happening?
The Santander Global Trade Barometer 2026 indicates that U.S. businesses, alongside their global counterparts, are increasingly looking towards international markets for growth despite economic and geopolitical uncertainties. The study, based on a survey
of over 6,000 businesses across Santander's nine core markets, including the U.S., reveals that 59% of businesses expect revenue increases in the next 12 months, with 78% positive about growth prospects over the next three years. Notably, 59% of businesses not currently exporting are considering international expansion within three years. Internationally active firms show greater optimism, with 69% expecting revenue growth compared to 53% of domestic-only businesses. International trade's importance has grown for 55% of businesses, while only 4% see it as less important.
Why It's Important?
This trend signifies a strategic shift for U.S. businesses, indicating a proactive approach to diversifying revenue streams and mitigating domestic market risks by tapping into global opportunities. The increased optimism among internationally active firms suggests that global engagement can provide a buffer against localized economic downturns. For the U.S. economy, this could translate into stronger export performance, increased foreign direct investment, and enhanced competitiveness on the global stage. The focus on international expansion also highlights the resilience of businesses in adapting to a complex global environment, seeking growth beyond traditional borders. This could influence U.S. trade policy, potentially leading to greater support for export-oriented businesses and initiatives that facilitate international commerce.
What's Next?
The survey highlights that technology, particularly AI, is expected to accelerate international growth. 52% of international or aspiring international firms already use AI in some aspect of international trade, and 32% plan to invest in it over the next 12 months, rising to 39% among internationally active firms. Businesses believe AI will enable them to serve more markets (64%) and enter new markets faster (60%). This suggests a future where technological adoption will be crucial for global trade success. Businesses will likely continue to invest in digital transformation and AI capabilities to enhance their international reach and efficiency. Policymakers may also consider how to support businesses in leveraging technology for global trade, potentially through incentives or infrastructure development.
Beyond the Headlines
The findings from the Santander Global Trade Barometer underscore a fundamental shift in business strategy towards global interconnectedness, even in an era of increasing fragmentation. The emphasis on international trade as a growth driver reflects a recognition that domestic markets alone may not provide sufficient opportunities for expansion. The role of AI in facilitating this internationalization points to a future where technological innovation will be inextricably linked with global commerce. This could lead to new business models, more efficient supply chains, and a more integrated global economy. However, it also raises questions about digital divides and the need for equitable access to technology to ensure that all businesses can participate in this evolving global landscape.
