What's Happening?
A recent report by UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) indicates that AI-related products, such as servers, semiconductors, and high-performance computing equipment, significantly contributed to merchandise trade growth in 2025 and early 2026. This trend
suggests a shift in the global economy where value addition is increasingly concentrated around AI infrastructure. The report also projects a slowdown in overall world merchandise trade growth for 2026, attributing this to geopolitical tensions, energy insecurity, and supply chain disruptions. The growing focus on AI infrastructure raises concerns about a potential widening of the economic gap between developed and some developing economies, a risk previously highlighted in the World Economic Forum’s 2024 Global Risks Report. Developing nations face the challenge of not only increasing production but also building the necessary regional scale, energy systems, digital infrastructure, investment readiness, and industrial capabilities to compete in this evolving global landscape.
Why It's Important?
The UNCTAD report underscores a critical juncture for the U.S. economy and its global trade strategy. As AI infrastructure becomes a primary driver of merchandise trade, the U.S., a leader in AI development and technology, stands to benefit from increased exports of related products. However, the report's warning about a widening economic gap between developed and developing nations has significant implications for U.S. foreign policy and economic partnerships. A more fragmented global economy, exacerbated by technological divergence, could lead to instability and new trade barriers, potentially impacting U.S. businesses reliant on global supply chains and emerging markets. The U.S. will need to consider how its trade policies and investments can support the integration of developing economies into the AI-driven global market, fostering stability and creating new opportunities for American companies, while also addressing the competitive challenges posed by other nations investing heavily in AI infrastructure.
What's Next?
In response to the UNCTAD findings, policymakers globally, including in the U.S., are likely to intensify efforts to build, govern, and standardize digital infrastructure. The 'race' to establish leadership in this area will define the future of finance and global trade. For developing economies, the focus will be on regional integration and coordinated industrial policies to avoid being left behind. The African Union, for example, is already seeing forecasts of significant regional trade growth and is implementing initiatives like PAPSS and the AfCFTA Digital Trade Protocol to create a more integrated digital and industrial market. The U.S. may need to re-evaluate its trade and development aid strategies to help these regions build the necessary infrastructure, potentially through partnerships and technology transfer, to ensure a more equitable and stable global economic environment. This could involve increased investment in digital infrastructure projects in allied nations and a push for international standards that promote fair competition and access to AI technologies.
Beyond the Headlines
The shift towards AI-driven trade highlighted by UNCTAD carries profound ethical and geopolitical implications. The concentration of AI infrastructure in developed nations could exacerbate existing inequalities, creating a 'digital divide' that extends beyond access to information to fundamental economic participation. This raises questions about digital sovereignty and the control of critical technological infrastructure. Nations that lead in building and governing this infrastructure will wield significant influence over the next era of finance and global trade. The report implicitly suggests a need for international cooperation to prevent a winner-take-all scenario, where a few dominant players control the AI-driven global economy. The U.S. will face the challenge of balancing its national economic interests with the broader goal of fostering a more inclusive and stable global trade system, potentially through multilateral agreements and initiatives that promote equitable access to AI technologies and infrastructure development.
