What's Happening?
The U.S. turkey industry is showing signs of recovery after two years of significant losses, with an estimated 198.5 million turkeys raised in 2026, a 3% increase from 2025. This marks the first rise in turkey production since 2023. Federally inspected
turkey meat production is projected to reach 5.13 billion pounds in 2026, a 6% increase from the previous year, with a further slight increase expected in 2027. Despite this recovery, production levels remain below the 5.46 billion pounds recorded in 2023, prior to widespread disease outbreaks like Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus (aMPV). Strong domestic consumption and growing export markets, particularly Mexico, are contributing to improved returns for growers. However, the industry continues to face challenges from persistent disease pressures and rising feed costs. The USDA's October WASDE report indicates corn prices at $4.70 per bushel, up 13% from 2025, and soymeal at $340 per ton, up 4.5% from last year, both remaining above previous year's levels.
Why It's Important?
The recovery of the U.S. turkey industry is crucial for the agricultural sector and consumers. Increased production helps stabilize the supply chain, which has been disrupted by disease-related losses, and can lead to more consistent availability of turkey products. Strong export demand, especially from Mexico, highlights the U.S.'s role as a major global turkey supplier and contributes positively to agricultural trade balances. However, the ongoing battle with diseases like aMPV, which reduces feed efficiency and slows growth, poses a significant threat to sustained recovery and profitability. The rising cost of feed, a major operational expense for turkey farmers, directly impacts their profit margins and could hinder further expansion. This situation underscores the delicate balance between increasing production to meet demand and managing input costs and biosecurity risks in a volatile market. Consumers may see some moderation in turkey prices in 2027, but the underlying cost pressures could keep prices elevated compared to pre-2024 levels.
What's Next?
The U.S. turkey industry is expected to continue its recovery, with USDA projecting wholesale turkey prices to moderate in 2027 to an average of $1.45 per pound, an 18% decrease from 2026 levels. This moderation suggests a potential easing of consumer prices. However, the industry will need to closely monitor and manage the persistent challenges of disease outbreaks and volatile feed markets. Continued investment in biosecurity measures and research into disease prevention will be critical for long-term stability. Farmers will also need to adapt to fluctuating feed costs, potentially through hedging strategies or by seeking more efficient feed formulations. The balance between increasing production to meet demand and maintaining profitability in the face of these headwinds will define the industry's trajectory in the coming years. Export markets, particularly Mexico, will remain vital for balancing supplies and adding value to U.S. turkey products.
Beyond the Headlines
The challenges faced by the U.S. turkey industry, particularly the impact of disease and rising feed costs, highlight broader vulnerabilities within the agricultural supply chain. The reliance on a few key feed ingredients, such as corn and soymeal, exposes livestock producers to global commodity price fluctuations and geopolitical events. Furthermore, the ongoing threat of highly pathogenic diseases underscores the need for robust biosecurity protocols and rapid response mechanisms to prevent widespread economic disruption. This situation could accelerate the adoption of advanced farming technologies aimed at improving feed efficiency, disease detection, and animal health management. It also raises questions about the long-term sustainability of current production models and the potential for greater diversification in feed sources or more localized food systems to mitigate risks. The industry's recovery will serve as a case study for resilience in the face of complex biological and economic pressures.
