What's Happening?
A recent report by Oliver Wyman, Global Financial Market Infrastructure 2026, projects substantial shifts and growth within financial market infrastructure due to tokenization and artificial intelligence. Hiten Patel, partner and global head of financial infrastructure,
technology and services at Oliver Wyman, indicates that approximately $45 billion of existing financial market infrastructure (FMI) revenue could migrate onto tokenized rails. While about $7 billion of this revenue might be structurally eliminated due to reduced frictions, the remaining $38 billion is 'up for grabs' among market participants. Additionally, the report forecasts $25 billion in new revenue from tokenized markets under a full-penetration scenario, leading to an estimated net sector growth of $18 billion, increasing the total revenue pool from $131 billion to around $150 billion. The report also suggests that AI could expose a quarter of sector revenue, with a potential nine-point margin uplift by 2030 through cost reductions.
Why It's Important?
This report highlights a transformative period for the U.S. financial industry, with significant implications for market infrastructure providers, investors, and regulatory bodies. The potential for $45 billion in existing revenue to shift to tokenized platforms signifies a major restructuring of how financial transactions are conducted, impacting traditional clearing, custody, and settlement services. The projected $25 billion in new revenue underscores the growth opportunities in areas like tokenized securities, money market funds, and private markets, which could attract substantial investment and innovation. However, the 'up for grabs' nature of the shifting revenue also implies intense competition and potential consolidation within the FMI sector. The impact of AI, exposing a quarter of sector revenue, will force firms to integrate AI into their products and workflows to maintain competitiveness and pricing power, affecting employment and skill requirements across the industry.
What's Next?
Oliver Wyman anticipates a selective scaling of tokenization where it solves genuine economic problems, with leading use cases expected to show repeatable institutional activity and tangible benefits within two years. These benefits include more efficient collateral mobilization, lower market friction, improved liquidity, or better access. If these outcomes are not realized, the firm suggests the opportunity for tokenization might be narrower than currently believed. For AI, the focus will be on industrializing its application through reusable technology, shared data, measurable productivity targets, and robust governance to achieve the projected margin uplift. The report also suggests that the next M&A cycle will prioritize acquisitions that strengthen network effects, trusted infrastructure, or regulatory relevance, and those deeply embedded in client workflows with proprietary data or intellectual property.
Beyond the Headlines
The shift towards tokenized financial markets and the pervasive influence of AI raise profound questions about the future of finance, including data ownership, cybersecurity, and regulatory oversight. The 'structural elimination' of revenue due to reduced frictions could lead to job displacement in traditional financial operations, necessitating workforce retraining and adaptation. The emergence of 'compute as an asset class' suggests a future where computational power itself becomes a tradable commodity, requiring new financial instruments and market infrastructure. This evolution could democratize access to financial services and create new investment opportunities, but also presents challenges in standardizing heterogeneous assets and ensuring market integrity. The ethical implications of AI in financial decision-making, including algorithmic bias and transparency, will also become increasingly critical as its adoption grows.
