What's Happening?
The U.S. turkey industry is showing signs of recovery after two years of losses, with the number of turkeys raised and overall production increasing for the first time since 2023. According to the USDA's Turkeys Raised report, U.S. turkey farmers raised approximately
198.5 million turkeys in 2026, a 3% increase from 2025. Federally inspected turkey meat production is projected to reach 5.13 billion pounds in 2026, up 6% from 2025. This recovery is driven by strong domestic consumption, growing exports, and reduced cold storage inventories. Despite these improvements, the industry continues to face challenges from disease and higher feed costs. Wholesale prices for frozen whole hen turkeys are forecast at $1.76 per pound in 2026, a 30% increase from 2025, largely due to lower production in previous years caused by Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI) and avian metapneumovirus (aMPV). Prices are expected to moderate to $1.45 per pound in 2027.
Why It's Important?
The recovery of the U.S. turkey industry is crucial for both agricultural producers and consumers. For farmers, increased production and strong demand translate into improved returns after a period of significant losses. This stability helps ensure the viability of turkey farming operations and the broader agricultural supply chain. For consumers, while wholesale prices have increased significantly in 2026, the projected moderation in 2027 offers some relief, particularly for a staple product often associated with holiday seasons. The industry's ability to rebound despite ongoing disease challenges and rising feed costs demonstrates resilience but also highlights the vulnerabilities within food production systems. Strong export markets, particularly Mexico, play a vital role in balancing supplies and adding value to U.S. turkey products.
What's Next?
The turkey industry will continue to navigate the dual challenges of disease management and fluctuating feed costs. While production is increasing, it remains below 2023 levels, indicating a need for sustained growth to fully recover. The projected moderation of wholesale prices in 2027 suggests a potential easing of costs for consumers in the coming year, though these improvements in grower returns do not always directly translate to lower grocery store prices. The industry will likely focus on enhancing biosecurity measures to mitigate future disease outbreaks and optimizing feed efficiency to manage costs. Monitoring domestic and international demand will also be critical for maintaining market balance and supporting grower profitability.
Beyond the Headlines
The turkey industry's recovery story is a microcosm of the broader challenges faced by the U.S. agricultural sector, including the impact of animal diseases, global trade dynamics, and input costs. The significant price increases seen in 2026 underscore the fragility of food supply chains when faced with widespread biological threats like HPAI. This situation also highlights the complex relationship between wholesale prices and retail prices, where various factors beyond farm-level costs influence what consumers pay at the grocery store. The reliance on export markets, especially Mexico, demonstrates the interconnectedness of global food systems and the importance of international trade for U.S. producers. This recovery also brings into focus the ongoing need for robust agricultural research and development to address disease prevention and sustainable production practices.
