Of all the spectacular Democratic upsets in 2026 midterm elections — a statewide sweep in Texas, the first senator elected by the state of Kansas in almost a century, an underdog stunner in South Carolina — the most shocking victory of all may still be
yet to come.
The race to represent the ruby red state of Mississippi in the U.S. Senate has not been called as of Wednesday afternoon, but Democrat Scott Colom, a district attorney, appears poised to defeat the Republican incumbent, Sen. Cindy Hyde-Smith.
Colom currently leads Hyde-Smith by roughly 2,000 votes, a lead that has grown as ballots continue to be counted in several MIssissippi counties, most notably Hinds County, where Colom is trouncing his rival by 60 percentage points.
“I think that anybody who can look at the math should be able to know where this is going,” Colom told reporters on Wednesday morning. “It’s going to: Scott Colom is the next United States senator. I’m confident in that.”
If he does defeat Hyde-Smith, the victory will be especially sweet for Colom. In 2023, Colom, then a state prosecutor, was nominated by President Joe Biden to a lifetime appointment on the federal bench. That nomination was blocked by a single senator from his home state: Hyde-Smith.
Breaking with her Republican colleague, Sen. Roger Wicker, who backed Colom’s selection, Hyde-Smith cited Colom’s “opposition to legislation to protect female athletes” (a reference, apparently, to his decision to sign an open letter condemning the criminalization of gender-affirming care), as well as a single political donation he got four years prior from a PAC that had received funding from George Soros.
Three years ago, Colom wrote a letter asking Hyde-Smith to reconsider the decision; she refused. Had Hyde-Smith not spiked his nomination, Colom told The New York Times in May, “It is fair to say that I would not have resigned from the federal bench to run for Senate.”
Colom made Hyde-Smith’s tone-deaf response to the rising cost of living a centerpiece of his insurgent bid to replace her. One viral ad produced by the Colom campaign showcased Hyde-Smith’s comment, in answer to a question about the beef prices, that “You have so many proteins to choose from.” Rather than pick another protein, the spot urged voters to “Pick another senator instead.” It resonated, as Mississippians appear on Wednesday poised to do exactly that.
Up until the point in late October when President Donald Trump flew to Mississippi to rally his supporters behind Hyde-Smith’s reelection effort, few political observers expected the race to be close. Only three polls were done of the match-up, compared to dozens of surveys conducted in higher-profile contests in Michigan and Texas. But in the waning days of the campaign, as it became clear Colom was mounting an unexpectedly strong challenge, former President Barack Obama and former Vice President Kamala Harris both traveled to Misssippi to boost Democratic support for his bid.
If Colom wins, it will be the first time a Democrat has represented Mississippi in the Senate since the prominent segregationist John C. Stennis retired in the 1980s.
Colom’s victory would be made even more remarkable by the fact that Ty Pinkins — the Democratic candidate for Senate in 2024 — chose to run as an Independent in the general election this fall, siphoning off nearly 20,000 votes.
In spite of those challenges — and an emergency infusion of more than a million dollars from the GOP’s Senate Leadership Fund — Colom remains, improbably, poised to claim victory.
Hyde-Smith herself may be more surprised than anyone by that fact: Speaking at an election night party on Tuesday, she was already celebrating, boasting to supporters, “I blocked Scott Colom from being a federal judge and you blocked him from being a U.S. senator.”
Asked on Wednesday morning to respond to Hyde-Smith’s premature declaration, Colom called on a classic Southern expression: “Bless her heart,” he said.
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