The midterm elections are nearly here, and all signs point to a successful showing from Democrats. The party has long been expected to take back control of the House of Representatives, but the Senate seemed like a pipe dream … that was until Donald Trump
launched a war against Iran, driving costs up and causing his popularity to crater. Republican candidates have suffered as a result, and the GOP is suddenly in danger of losing Senate seats in red states they’ve held safely for years.
“Democrats are recognizing this opportunity and hoping that party leaders and the candidates that are able to finish the deal and win in these places where they have been extremely weak for decades,” Tatishe Nteta, provost of political science at UMass-Amherst, recently told Rolling Stone, noting that their polling has found “a clear enthusiasm gap between Democrats and Republicans about voting in the midterm election.”
“[Winning the Senate would] do untold damage to the Trump agenda for his last two years in office,” Nteta adds.
So how would Democrats have to perform in November to actually win the Senate, take total control of Congress, and put Trump and his administration on the defensive for the remainder of the president’s term?
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate. Vice President JD Vance represents a tie-breaking vote in an evenly split Senate, which means Democrats need to pick up a net of four seats to lock down the majority. There are 35 Senate seats up for election this year, 13 of which are particularly competitive. Nine of these seats are currently controlled by Republicans, which means whichever party wins the majority (seven or more) of these 13 seats will likely win control of the Senate. Democrats are in pretty good shape — according to the latest polls, anyway — including in red states like Texas and Ohio, but it’s going to be very, very close.
Here’s where each race stands:
Texas
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Texas’ MAGA Attorney General Ken Paxton and Democratic State Representative James Talarico. Paxton defeated current Senator John Cornyn in the Republican primary earlier this year.
How’s the race been shaping up: Texas may be the grand prize of the 2026 midterms. A Democrat has not won a statewide election in the Lone Star State in over three decades, but this year conditions might be just right for the party to achieve the elusive Texas flip. Trump’s popularity is so low that it’s dragging down the Republicans who are actually on the ballot, including Paxton. At the same time, the Texas constituencies that Trump managed to bring onboard in 2024 are being pummeled by his economic and immigration policies. To top it all off, Paxton is anotably weak candidate, with an extensive history of public corruption and little experience running a competitive campaign. While Republicans have settled on trying to paint Talarico as a “woke” warrior obsessed with trans kids and socialism, the former seminarian has run a highly disciplined campaign focused on economic issues, anti-corruption, and a common sense “love thy neighbor” ethos. He’s got a good shot but — like trying to kick the football Lucy is holding — Texas Democrats have ended up on their ass too many times to count, and the state won’t be a guarantee until it’s been won.
What are the polls saying: Polling shows a narrow race between Paxton and Talarico, with the Democrat consistently leading by a single-digit margin in most major polls. Trump and Republicans are pouring stupid amounts of money and time into the state to try and drag Paxton over the line, and gin up turnout. Whatever the outcome, it’s looking like it will be a nail biter on election night.
Michigan
Currently held by: Democrats
Who’s running: Epidiminologist and local public health official Dr. Abdul El-Sayed, and former Republican House Rep. Mike Rodgers. Democratic Senator Gary Peters is retiring at the end of his term.
How’s the race been shaping up: This one’s been pretty ugly. Michigan, a state with a large Muslim population, has become the nexus of Democrats’ internal war over how the party — and the United States — should respond to the ongoing genocide in Gaza. Rogers sailed through the GOP primary, while the progressive El-Sayed fought a tooth-and-nail campaign against moderate Hayley Sevens — a pro-Israel Democrat backed by Senate leadership and tens of millions in outsider spending.
El-Sayed — an economic populist and advocate for universal health care — managed to pull off the win for the nomination over Stevens, who has since endorsed his candidacy, but the race has remained a mess of ideological and culture war proxy battles. Rogers and Republicans have attempted to malign El-Sayed’s Muslim faith by promoting false links to extremism and terrorist movements. They’re also doing all they can to highlight his association with socialist Twitch streamer Hasan Piker. All in all, both Republicans and Democrats are framing El-Sayed’s candidacy as symbolic of the progressive left’s ambitions towards higher office.
What are the polls saying: That it’s too close for anyone’s comfort. El-Sayed has led in most major polls by a small margin. Recent polling shows he may be building a lead as the campaign season enters its terminal phase, with a late September Maris poll giving him a seven-point advantage.
Ohio
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Republican incumbent Jon Husted and former Senator Sherrod Brown.
How’s the race been shaping up: Ohio is bit of a strange case: Long-time Ohio Senator Sherrod Brown, who was ousted by Republican Bernie Moreno in the 2024 election, is looking to win back a seat in the Senate by knocking off incumbent Jon Husted in a special election to fill the seat vacated when J.D. Vance became vice president. Husted, a former lieutenant governor, was appointed to the seat by Governor Mike DeWine in 2025, and hasn’t had long to establish himself as much of a political force. Brown has been a mainstay in the state for decades. Brown only narrowly lost his seat in 2024 with Trump at the top of the ticket — but now, with the president’s popularity in the dumpster, he has a good shot at winning back Ohio voters who see him as a safe, responsible, known quantity.
What are the polls saying: A Marist poll from late September has Brown up 51 to 43 over Husted. Ohio’s voters have overwhelmingly supported Trump each time he’s run, but the state’s strong ties to union labor and American industry mean that the brutal economic forecast has weakened their support for the overall Republican project. A recent Fox News poll showed that Ohio voters gave Trump a 42 percent approval rating, versus 57 percent disapproval.
North Carolina
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Former Democratic Governor Roy Cooper and former RNC Chair Michael Watley.
How’s the race been shaping up: North Carolina is one of the most significant battlegrounds in the midterms, as retiring Republican Senator Thom Tillis has decided to step down from his seat in a terrible climate for his party in the state. Roy Cooper, a Democrat and popular former governor of the state, has decided to step in — and thus far, he’s beating the pants off former RNC Chair Michael Watley. The gap is so big that the GOP’s top super PAC has pulled ad funding from the state, figuring they’ll cut their losses and put the money into a more competitive race, like Kansas. Cooper is coming off two terms as the state’s governor, in which he presided over a popular and widespread Medicaid expansion.
What are the polls saying: The polls have Cooper up anywhere from +5 to +12. That could be overstating things, but considering Cooper was the first Democrat to beat a sitting Republican governor when he first ran in a statewide election in 2016 — with Trump on the ballot — it seems like about as safe of a bet as Democrats can get to flip a seat this cycle.
Maine
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Longtime Republican incumbent Susan Collins and Democrat Troy Jackson, a former state senator.
How’s the race been shaping up: Woof. How long do you have? Democrats nominated Troy Jackson, an inoffensive, plainspoken former Maine state senator after getting off the absolute roller coaster of Graham Platner’s now-infamous candidacy. Platner’s journey from aw-shucks oyster farmer to poll-leading political juggernaut took the party by storm, and looked to put them in a commanding lead over Collins. That was until Platner’s past — which included a Nazi tattoo, repeated infidelity, and accusations of sexual assault — finally caught up with them. Jackson stepped in to fill the gap, and has been struggling to command the same kind of numbers while also navigating the delicate lane between straight talk and consultant-addled jargon. Collins, meanwhile, is currently weathering a shocking, blatant corruption scandal — although she’s proved almost impossible to unseat in the past, no matter the political headwinds.
What are the polls saying: Jackson has a fighting chance, but Collins is holding a narrow lead. A New York Times poll from late September shows her up 49 to 46 over Jackson.
New Hampshire
Currently held by: Democrats
Who’s running: Democratic Rep. Chris Pappas is running against former Republican Senator John Sununu. Current Democratic Senator Jeanne Shaheen is not seeking reelection.
How’s the race been shaping up: New Hampshire is a curious electoral case. In 2024, Vice President Kamala Harris barely managed to win the state. Its entire congressional delegation is Democratic, but the governorship and General Court (the fancy New Hampshire term for its state legislature) are Republican-controlled.
With name recognition, a monetary advantage, and persistent distaste among voters for Democrats, Sununu has managed to keep Democrats in the state on their toes, and may manage to squeeze out a much needed victory for Republicans amid a potential blue wave election. Pappas on the other hand is riding the anti-incumbency wave beleaguering Republicans this cycle, and has flexed his credentials as a moderate Democrat to win over independents.
What are the polls saying: Pappas is holding on to his small lead over Sununu, and the race is rated a toss-up by the Cook Political Report.
Georgia
Currently held by: Democrats
Who’s running: Incumbent Democrat Jon Ossoff is facing off with Republican Rep. Mike Collins, a prominent Trump ally.
How’s the race been shaping up: In 2020, Ossoff helped deliver Democrats a 50-50 Senate majority under President Joe Biden. Now, in his first bid for reelection, Ossoff is reminding voters exactly how capable he is as a candidate, and even drawing speculation about a presidential run in 2028.
Collins, a close Trump ally and self described “MAGA warrior” who supported Trump’s efforts to meddle with the GA election in 2020, is struggling to outrun his association with the president. Trump’s insistence that voters pretend he’s on the ballot seems to be dragging down the popularity of Republican candidates across the country, but Collins has continued to campaign alongside the president. Democrats will probably need to hold onto Ossoff’s seat in order to wrest the Senate majority from Republicans, and it seems like they have a good chance to do just that.
What are the polls saying: The race is rated as “likely Democratic” by the Cook Political Report, and Ossoff has built a solid lead in recent polls.
Iowa
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Democratic State Representative Josh Turek is running against Republican Rep. Ashley Hinson. Current Senator Joni Ernst is not seeking reelection.
How’s the race been shaping up: Iowa wasn’t really even on the map for Democrats until pretty recently. But in August, the Cook Political Report moved the race from a “lean Republican” to a “toss up.” Turek, a professional wheelchair basketball player and Paralympic athlete, managed to make significant inroads in the state won by Trump three elections in a row. He was also the first 2026 midterm candidate to secure an endorsement from (and cut an ad with) former President Barack Obama, giving a massive boost to his national profile.
Describing himself as a “prairie populist,” Turek has focused his platform on a message of affordability, access to health care, and anti-corruption policies. He has hit Hinson, who is endorsed by Trump, over the growth of her personal wealth while serving in Congress. Hinson in turn has been forced to distance herself from the president on certain critical policy issues given Trump’s floundering approval ratings. All in all, if Democrats manage to pull off a flip in the heartland of Trump country, it will be its own special kind of victory.
What are the polls saying: That it’s pretty much a dead heat. Recent polls flip flop between giving Turek and Hinson a roughly two-point lead, well within the margin of error.
Alaska
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Democrat Mary Peltola is challenging incumbent Republican Dan Sullivan, who has two other Republicans to compete with, as well: Gerald Heikes and, confusingly, another Dan Sullivan.
How’s the race been shaping up: Alaska’s election structure makes this a bit strange. For the second time, the state is using ranked-choice voting to determine its senator. In some ways, it’s a traditional two-horse race: the Democrats have a viable challenger in Mary Peltola, and the Republicans have a longtime incumbent in Dan Sullivan who’s trying to hold his seat. But the RCV system makes things interesting in that there’s a second Dan Sullivan running, who has been accused of only entering in the race to siphon off votes from the incumbent Dan Sullivan. In the top-four election to decide the candidates, Peltola got over 49 percent of the vote, and Sullivan only got around 41 percent, with the other Dan Sullivan posting 2.5 percent and a couple other Republicans racking up a few percentage points here and there. Democrats think Peltola is their best shot to take a Senate seat in Alaska in years, but she’s not perfect. A recent New York Times report alleged that Peltola has a history of, in private, tossing slurs around and, shall we say, generally being an asshole to staff. It’s hardly a fatal scandal for her campaign, so we’ll have to see if it shifts the needle for voters in November.
What are the polls saying: This one is pretty much dead even. A Quantus Insights poll from late September had Peltola and Sullivan locked at 47-47, and even the heavily Republican-biased Trafalgar pollster only has Sullivan up one point. There are other polls that have Peltola up a few points, as well, but they’re from less-reliable pollsters, so it’s tough to say how much stock to put in them. Alaska is a conservative state in general, though, so most analysts have this one as a toss-up with a slight Republican lean — but still very much a battleground this fall.
South Carolina
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Lindsey Graham’s sister, Darline Graham is running to keep his seat, which she was appointed to after her brother’s death. Her opponent is Dr. Annie Andrews, a pediatrician.
How’s the race been shaping up: Also a strange one! Darline Graham is, as far as we can tell, barely campaigning. She’s a political novice who only seems half-interested in the job beyond backing Trump. But she’s got the full support of the GOP — sort of. The party brass is behind her, but after she won a contested primary, elements of the conservative movement are also trying to mount a write-in effort for Congressman Ralph Norman, who narrowly lost to Graham in the primary. (Norman, for his part, has said he’ll support Graham.) Andrews, meanwhile, is battling the massive recognition of the Graham name, but has closed the gap considerably and is posting predictable leads with younger demographics.
What are the polls saying: Again, this one is very, very close, with some extremely bad signs for Republicans. The latest Trafalgar poll from late September — again, a very conservative pollster — had Andrews at 42.3 percent and Graham at 43.4 percent. That seems close, until you consider that the respondents were 60 percent Republican and two-thirds were over the age of 50 — meaning Andrews is competitive with Graham with the demographics she should be doing the worst with.
Minnesota
Currently held by: Democrats
Who’s running: Democratic Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan and Republican Michele Tafoya, a former sports anchor. Current Senator Tina Smith is not seeking reelection.
How’s the race been shaping up: Minnesota is a true purple state where the Democratic Farmer Labor Party (DFL) has managed to dominate Democratic success through a focus on working class, economically progressive governance. Tafoya is a bit of a known entity in her own right. Her career as an Emmy-winning journalist and sideline reporter for NBC’s Sunday Night Football is a leg up in terms of sheer name recognition. While a Republican hasn’t held one of Minnesota’s Senate seats since 2009, a massive benefits fraud scandal uncovered under Flanagan and Governor Tim Walz’s administration has given Tafoya a competitive boost. Tafoya is leaning hard into the fallout of the state fraud scandal, accusing her opponent of turning a blind eye to the abuse as Minnesotans were cheated out of millions in government funds.
What are the polls saying: It’s essentially a statistical tie, with Tafoya polling within two points of Flanagan. The national map looks increasingly dismal for the GOP, but Minnesota is one of the handful of states where they can potentially bite back.
Kansas
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Republican incumbent Roger Marshall is facing Democrat Adam Hamilton, a pastor.
How’s the race been shaping up: Democrats think that they have an actual shot at Kansas for the first time in … 94 years. Hamilton is a relatively strong candidate: he’s a pastor who has made it explicitly clear that he does not want to be besmirched by the losing elements of the national party (“please, no,” he said when asked if he wanted Kamala Harris to come campaign with him). Kansas’ economy has been hit extremely hard by Trump’s trade policies and war in Iran, and Hamilton has even been endorsed by some Republicans, including one of Marshall’s primary opponents this year. Marshall, for his part, has been hit by a story alleging that he filed lawsuits against 700 of his patients when he was an OBGYN and has been struggling to paint the very normal, very moderate Hamilton as an “extremist.” The GOP has recognized this and is diverting resources away from their doomed effort in North Carolina to try to get Marshall across the finish line.
What are the polls saying: It’s a dead heat currently. A New York Times/Siena poll from late September has the two tied at 45 percent, and the Republican-leaning Trafalgar Group had Hamilton, the Democrat, at +1. The influx of Republican dark money might move the needle some, but this is going to be a real toss-up on Election Day.
Nebraska
Currently held by: Republicans
Who’s running: Incumbent Senator Pete Ricketts is running against an independent candidate, Dan Osborn, who has inherited much of the Democratic Party’s support after Cindy Burbank, the Democratic primary winner, dropped out to make way for him.
How’s the race been shaping up: This is also a strange race, notably because it is far closer than expected but does NOT feature two candidates from the two major parties. Osborn is an independent, blue-collar, union-member who came within single digits of beating Nebraska’s other senator, Deb Fischer, in the 2024 election. The race is close enough that Trump was forced to head to Nebraska for emergency rallies in early October, where he called Osborn a “fake independent who will say anything to get elected.” We’ll see if that’s enough!
What are the polls saying: This one is close but not as tight as some of the others on this list. Polls from late September show Ricketts has a narrow leadof around three percent, and Nebraska’s heavy GOP bias still in place (Republicans poll at +9 over Democrats, generally). Still, that’s within a pretty small margin of error, and means that Osborn has a fighting shot at the seat.
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