There’s been some speculation — in the media, among experts, and maybe in your social circles — that weather forecasts have recently gotten worse. That shouldn’t be a huge surprise. Rolling Stone reported last year that Donald Trump’s anti-science agenda
could hurt forecasting. Sure enough, his administration’s determination to gut monitoring agencies seems to be having a real impact.
Experts say staffing cuts at the National Weather Service and a reported decrease in the number of weather balloons being launched on a regular basis, in particular, could be making it more difficult to produce accurate forecasts.
“The National Weather Service lost a number of staff last year, and a lot of those individuals had a lot of experience,” says David Stensrud, a professor of meteorology and atmospheric science at Penn State. “They started to rehire again earlier this year, but I suspect the new hires are still going through training, or maybe they’re just starting their job, and they don’t have the same level of experience.”
Weather balloons are typically launched twice a day at dozens of locations across the United States. These balloons carry an instrument called a radiosonde, which collects an array of atmospheric data that helps determine weather forecasts, along with Doppler radar and various satellite imagery. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration data shows that weather balloons are indeed being launched less frequently than they used to be. This decreases the amount of data meteorologists have to work with, which can lead to less accurate weather reports.
“Because of the staffing issues with the Weather Service, a lot of the central U.S. and western radiosonde sites are not launched in the morning,” Stensrud says. “They’re launched typically around midday, so you don’t get the full picture anymore.”
Stensrud says that a lot of institutional knowledge goes into creating accurate weather forecasts, not just data. If you fire a lot of people who have that knowledge, forecasts will be worse.
The government has to be careful when it’s making these kinds of staffing cuts, Stensrud says, not just because of the knowledge it’s losing but because of the message it sends about the administration’s attitude toward science. Many scientists have also left agencies voluntarily because of the hostile environment the administration has created.
It may seem like weather forecasts are less accurate, and it would make sense given the Trump administration’s cuts, but all of this does still need to be analyzed by researchers. Kristen Corbosiero, a professor of atmospheric and environmental sciences at the University of Albany, says she hasn’t seen research done on whether forecasts have actually become less reliable, and that may take some time.
“I don’t think that anyone has really done a formal study to see if forecasts are being degraded at this point, or not that I’ve seen,” she says. “All the weather services across the United States used to routinely launch twice a day — sometimes not, because of helium shortages or staff shortages. And that data is obviously crucial because it gets fed into our models in terms of forecasting.”
Corbosiero hopes that recent increases in hiring at the National Weather Service will help fix any problems that might have been created as a result of the cuts after Trump retook office. It won’t be a quick fix, though, because new hires need time to get established in their roles.
“Making sure that our weather service offices are staffed, that we’re able to collect the data that gives us key information about weather events — what affects people day to day, but also how our climate is changing — that’s the top line issue,” Corbosiero says.
Offices that measure climate data — including the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Colorado — have also been closed by the Trump administration. Corbosiero says the nation may be less prepared for future extreme weather events as a result, which could put lives in danger.
“The model of the weather service is to protect life and property,” Corbosiero says. “The less monitoring you have of weather and climate, the less likely forecasters are to be able to predict what’s going to happen.”
It wasn’t difficult to predict that DOGE’s indiscriminate firing of hundreds of thousands of civil servants and the slashing of agency budgets would have unintended, harmful consequences. Many of the consequences seem to have arrived — from the Ebola outbreak in Africa, to gaps in weather forecasting, and beyond. Perhaps forecasting will improve if the new hires at the Weather Service can be used to reassemble what was carelessly discarded, but there’s no getting around that the devastating impact of the Trump administration’s assault on science will be felt for years to come.
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