The myth of a blue Texas is now a reality.
Democrat James Talarico has defeated Republican state Attorney General Ken Paxton in one of the most hotly contested Senate races of the year. The victory marks a seismic shift in Texas politics, and in the nation’s
current political map, ending a 32-year statewide drought for Democrats in the Republican stronghold. The party now has a U.S. Senate seat there for at least the next six years.
The race started with two bitter primaries, with Talarico defeating Rep. Jasmine Crockett (D-Texas) on the Democratic side, and Paxton defeating incumbent Senator John Cornyn after landing Donald Trump’s endorsement. Cornyn refused to endorse his party’s nominee after losing the primary, citing Paxton’s long record of corruption and abuse of office. In audio leaked to Rolling Stone last month, Paxton griped about how much the contentious primary with Paxton hurt his chances.
Cornyn was one of the first to celebrate Talarico’s win on Tuesday. “The voters have spoken, and I want to extend my congratulations to James Talarico on his election to the U.S. Senate,” he wrote. “I look forward to meeting him and offering my assistance with his transition as he prepares to serve Texans in the U.S. Senate.”
Throughout most of the general election campaign, Talarico held a polling lead over Paxton. The upstart candidate barnstormed the state for months before Paxton even began to put on his campaigning shoes. Talarico, a state House member, ran on an economically progressive platform focused on cost of living issues and anti-corruption. Paxton, a poster boy for corruption, ran largely on his allegiance to Trump while trying to paint Talarico as a radical leftist.
Talarico sought to take advantage of a uniquely abysmal landscape for Republicans across the country to steal a seat for Democrats in a state that voted for Trump by a 13-point margin in 2024. Trump, ironically enough, turned out to be Talarico’s biggest campaign asset. The president’s approval numbers tanked when he launched his war against Iran this spring — breaking his “no more wars” campaign promise and sending the price of fuel skyrocketing. It hasn’t exactly been a winning strategy. Inflation is up, wage growth is stagnant, and Americans can’t afford the life their parents had. At the same time, Elon Musk, the world’s first trillionaire dumped almost half a billion dollars into Republican reelection efforts — much of it into Texas.
Paxton, like many Texas Republicans, spent the campaign operating under the assumption that just being the GOP nominee would be enough to notch a win. Paxton ducked the three proposed network debates between himself and Talarico, studiously avoided interactions with any press not explicitly aligned with the right, and struggled to develop any level of compelling personal charm over the course of the race.
Trump’s support of Paxton — over an incumbent Republican and the objections of Senate GOP leaders — elevated the Texas race into a referendum on Trumpism writ large. The president campaigned throughout the state alongside Paxton, including hosting an “emergency” midterm republican convention in Dallas, Texas. Paxton was then caught complaining in leaked audio that the president’s appearance had hurt his numbers. Unable to distance himself from the president, Paxton and his allies attempted to reframe the race towards culture war fear mongering. Hundreds of millions were deployed in ad spending — including $158 million from Elon Musk — attempting to link Talarico to trangender issues, immigration anarchy, and (it really only works in Texas) accusations of veganism.
Despite the monetary advantages held by the GOP, Trump has shed basically all the support he managed to accumulate among disaffected Hispanic voters during the 2024 election — a critical constituency within Texas. Early voting data indicated that enthusiasm among Republican voters was trailing Democrats.
The candidates spent the final hours of the campaign making last-second pitches to voters, offering vastly competing visions for the state and nation.
At a Monday concert rally in the heart of Austin, Talarico and Democratic gubernatorial nominee Gina Hinojosa spoke before a full house crowd of almost 2,000 people. Talarico, swimming against a three-decade long tide of GOP rule in the state, reminded his supporters of the Texas of yore — and the Democrats who shaped it.
“We are the state that pioneered ranching and energy and computers. We are the state that gave this country Barbara Jordan, Anne Richards, LBJ and the great society,” Talarico said. “We are the state that put breakfast in a taco. There is nothing we can’t do.”
The Democrat contrasted his vision of the state with the governance of state and federal Republican leadership. “We have an affordability crisis because we have a corruption crisis,” Talarico said, repeatedly referencing Ken Paxton’s extensive record of profiteering and abuse of office. “This election should be about chasing a vision of what this state can be. Texas public schools that are the envy of the nation. A Texas economy that is second to none and Texas families that are stronger and healthier than they have ever been before. This won’t happen overnight, but a giant state deserves giant dreams.”
Paxton was originally scheduled to close his “Come and Take It” campaign tour with a large rally at The Alamo — a historic landmark of the Texas Revolution famously taken by the Mexican force. Paxton cancelled the rally and instead shifted his event to Allen, Texas, in the suburbs of Dallas.
The state attorney general’s closing pitch to voters was decidedly less rosy. In front of a much smaller crowd, Paxton warned of the threats of socialism, transgender inclusive healthcare, men in women’s sports, unfettered mass immigration, and a whole host of culture war priorities that had so far failed to secure him a major lead in the polls.
“We are all sinners and we all need you,” Paxton told supporters in a prayer ahead of his speech.
In the end, not enough Texans bought Paxton’s pitch.
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