Texas Senate candidate Ken Paxton warned that Governor Greg Abbott is struggling in his bid for reelection, made excuses for his own campaign issues, and conceded that Republicans will likely lose seats in the state legislature, according to audio of
a private donor event obtained by Rolling Stone.
“Yes, Abbott is struggling,” Paxton tells an attendee at a small, Washington, D.C., fundraiser on September 24, noting that despite the governor’s name ID and monetary advantage over Democrat Gina Hinojosa, the race is “still close.”
“Damn,” another person in the room responds, prompting Paxton to add that Abbott is in a fight for his seat even though “he didn’t have any primary, like I did, that was brutal with all the negative ads.”
“So those are my two disadvantages. One was — three, actually: not having time to raise more money, having the negative ads, and my opponent is well-funded and well-known,” Paxton says.
The behind-the-scenes audio obtained by Rolling Stone is part of a series of leaks from the Sept. 24 fundraiser, all recorded by an attendee at the event who opposes Paxton’s candidacy. Beginning in late September, portions of the audio and transcripts of the meeting were provided to various media outlets. Together, they paint a picture of a candidate privately attempting to deflect blame for his lackluster campaign and lagging polling numbers. Paxton, whom Donald Trump endorsed in the Republican primary earlier this year, is trying to prevent James Talarico from becoming the first Democrat to win statewide office in Texas in decades.
In a statement to Rolling Stone, Madison Cercy, a spokesperson for Paxton, wrote: “Rolling Stone combing through cherry-picked audio from a private fundraiser is nothing more than a partisan hit job, and it’s the same tired playbook the left has run against Ken Paxton for years. It hasn’t worked once. Republicans across Texas are united behind the Attorney General because they know what’s at stake, and no amount of selectively clipped audio is going to change that.”
Throughout the recordings, Paxton seems intent on convincing attendees that external factors outside of his control are to blame for his campaign struggles. He suggests that other Texas Republicans are in a better position to win than he is because they didn’t have to endure a brutal primary and barrage of attack ads, or because they are facing Democrats who are less well known and with less money behind them than Talarico.
“Whereas the rest of the ticket — who knows the Democrats? There’s not a single — like, if I said, ‘Who’s running for Texas AG as a Democrat?’ OK, moving down. ‘Who’s running as lieutenant governor?’ I don’t know. I can’t even name her name.”
Still, Paxton ultimately predicts that Republicans are “going to probably lose some seats” in the Texas legislature.
When asked specifically about Mayes Middleton — the Republican nominee to replace him as attorney general, who beat Paxton’s own choice, Aaron Reitz — Paxton downplays his candidacy. “He’s probably riding along with the governor somewhere. It’s not like his name ID is super high, but he had a lot — he spent a lot of money in the primary. And he has money, and he can spend. So, he’s gonna be in better shape because he can advertise.”
Paxton adds that Middleton — who voted to acquit Paxton during his 2023 impeachment — could buoy himself with his individual wealth. “He’s worth $850 million, so he can advertise whatever he wants to, whatever he feels from polling.”
But it’s not as if Paxton isn’t also swimming in funds. The Texas Senate race is on track to be the most expensive on record. A staggering $445 million has been spent as of last week, with Republicans throwing in $326 million between the state and national party, compared to roughly $175 million from Democrats. If there was ever a bottomless pit of burning money, it’s Republicans’ desire to keep Texas red. The New York Times reported this week that Elon Musk alone sent $10 million to Paxton’s super PAC.
Paxton and the event’s attendees also discuss the convenience of straight-ticket voting, a practice in some states that allows voters to “single punch” a box in order to vote for every candidate of a party on the ballot without filling out the entire form. Texas banned the practice, which often boosted down-ballot candidates in local races, in 2017 via a law supported by Republicans, including Lieutenant Governor Dan Patrick. (The year before it was passed Ryan Patrick, Patrick’s son, narrowly lost his race for district court judge in Harris County — one of the counties targeted by Republicans through the repeal.)
The group jokes that in Alabama, where straight-ticket voting is allowed, voting “red” is basically “the only option,” given the lack of salient Democratic opposition.
“Actually, we had it for a long time,” Paxton chimes in. “It just recently got changed. The lieutenant governor was convinced that Democrats used it more than Republicans. Which is probably right. But so he changed it.”
Paxton blames Patrick for doing away with straight-ticket voting, but as attorney general Paxton has supported court decisions enforcing the legality of the ban. Contemporary surveysfound that while state Republicans claimed the practice skewed Democratic, it was roughly equally common among voters of both parties.
Past audio excerpts of the Sept. 24 meeting show a similar pattern of blame deflection. Audio obtained last week by CNN reveals Paxton complaining that his primary opponent — outgoing Sen. John Cornyn, a fellow Republican — is “clearly not helping.”
“He wants me to lose,” Paxton says. Of course, Senate Republicans warned during the primary that Paxton was a weak, scandal-plagued candidate, who would cost the party tens of millions of dollars to pull over the finish line. In audio provided to The New York Times, Paxton gripes that the president — whose endorsement ultimately secured him the nomination — hurt his campaign by hosting an emergency Republican National Convention in Dallas in September.
“When we did that convention — it dropped our numbers. Everybody’s numbers dropped,” Paxton says. In another clip provided to Axios, Paxton grumbles that the president’s policies — particularly the ongoing war in Iran — are a drag on his campaign. “It’s not tariffs. … It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” he says. “People are feeling the pinch.” In yet another snippet provided to Politico, the candidate claims that he has “never” been in a race where he “felt less control over the campaign and, like, what issues are going to matter because it’s all coming — you know — from D.C.”
This is all apparently in service of convincing wealthy lobbyists to fork over cash to his campaign. Paxton did offer some concessions, like stating that Republicans would need to “suck it up” and make “some reasonable cuts to mandatory spending,” like Medicaid, Medicare, and Social Security, in audio provided to The Texas Tribune.
With less than a month until Election Day, Paxton is proving the Republicans who were alarmed at the prospect of the party choosing him over Cornyn correct. Yes, the president has created an economic crisis that has fractured his 2024 coalition. Yes, voters are disillusioned with the open corruption throughout the government. Yes, a growing majority of Americans believe the president’s hardline immigration policies have crossed into the inhumane. But the scandal-plagued Paxton has been an abysmal candidate, independent of any external factors.
He has not had to run a genuinely competitive race in over a decade, and the rigors of a competitive campaign trail are as alien to him as the notion of fidelity to a wife. He spent July 4th weekend — on the 250th anniversary of American independence, no less — in London with his mistress. He has dodged even mildly difficult questions from the press and his prospective constituents, and has been so ineffective on the stump that Trump has conceded publicly that “he may not talk exactly perfectly,” while making other jokes at Paxton’s expense. As candidates in competitive races across the country tussle with their opponents on the debate stage, Paxton has yet to commit to an in-person debate against Talarico despite three network offers, and his website has no public list of upcoming events or volunteer opportunities for interested parties.
Paxton’s private musings show him complaining about the circumstances of his candidacy, but if he loses to Talarico to turn a Texas Senate seat blue for the first time this century, he only has himself to blame.
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