The total fertility rate (TFR) in the United States, representing the average number of children born per woman, has undergone significant changes throughout history. From high rates in the early 19th century to a notable decline in recent decades, these shifts reflect broader societal, economic, and cultural transformations. Understanding these trends is crucial for comprehending the demographic landscape of the nation, including its population growth
and the dynamics of various racial and ethnic groups.
Historical Trajectories of U.S. Fertility
Historically, the U.S. experienced much higher fertility rates. In 1800, the total fertility rate stood at 7.0 children per woman, gradually decreasing to 6.9 in 1810 and 6.7 in 1820. This downward trend continued through the 19th century, reaching 3.6 by 1900. The early 20th century saw further declines, with the rate falling to 3.4 in 1910 and 3.2 in 1920. A more significant drop occurred by 1930, when the TFR was 2.5, and it reached 2.2 in 1940.
However, the mid-20th century witnessed a temporary resurgence in fertility, often referred to as the post-war baby boom. The TFR rose to 3.0 in 1950 and peaked at 3.5 in 1960. This period of increased births was followed by another decline, with the rate dropping to 2.5 in 1970 and 1.8 in 1980. The late 20th and early 21st centuries saw some fluctuations, with rates around 2.08 in 1990 and 2.06 in 2000, before a more consistent decline began.
Contemporary Fertility Rates and Racial/Ethnic Variations
By 2010, the total fertility rate had fallen to 1.93, and by 2020, it reached 1.64. The official estimate for 2025 projects a further decrease to 1.58 children born per woman. This current rate is notably below the replacement level, which is generally considered to be at least 2.1 births per woman—the level a population needs to replace itself without immigration.
An examination of fertility rates by racial and ethnic groups in 2020 reveals interesting variations. Non-Hispanic whites had a TFR of 1.55, while non-Hispanic Blacks had a slightly higher rate of 1.71. Native Americans, including Hispanics, recorded a TFR of 1.65, and Asian Americans, also including Hispanics, had the lowest rate at 1.53. Hispanics of all racial groups collectively had a TFR of 1.88. It is important to note that approximately 95% of Hispanics are categorized as "white Hispanics" by the CDC, which does not recognize the census's "Some other race" category and counts individuals in that category as white.
Recent Birth Trends and Future Implications
Despite the overall declining fertility rate, the year 2021 saw a slight increase in the number of births. A total of 3,659,289 babies were born, marking a 1% rise from 2020. This was the first increase in births since 2014, as prior to this report, the total number of births had been decreasing by an average of 2% per year. This increase was not uniform across all groups; White and Hispanic women experienced about a 2% increase in births from 2020 to 2021. Conversely, Black and Asian women saw declines of 2.4% and 2.5%, respectively, while American Indian/Alaskan Native women experienced a 3.2% decrease. While this recent uptick in births is notable, the total fertility rate in 2021 was 1.6635 births per woman, still remaining below the replacement level necessary for natural population maintenance.
