The 1916 United States presidential election was a remarkably close contest that saw incumbent Democratic President Woodrow Wilson secure a second term. Held on November 7, 1916, the election pitted Wilson and his running mate, Vice President Thomas R. Marshall, against the Republican ticket of former Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes and former Vice President Charles Fairbanks. This election was significant not only for its narrow outcome
but also for the political landscape it reflected, particularly the lingering divisions within the Republican Party and the growing shadow of World War I in Europe. Wilson's victory marked him as the first incumbent Democrat since 1832 to win re-election to a second consecutive term, a testament to his campaign's effectiveness in a challenging era.
The Candidates and Their Platforms
Woodrow Wilson, as the incumbent, was overwhelmingly re-nominated by the Democratic National Convention held in St. Louis, Missouri, between June 14 and 16. His enormous popularity within the party ensured his re-nomination, and Vice President Thomas R. Marshall was also re-nominated without opposition. The Democratic campaign largely centered on the slogan, "He kept us out of war," appealing to a widespread desire among American voters to avoid involvement in the ongoing conflict in Europe. This sentiment was further reinforced by the slogan "America First," which aimed to resonate with those who preferred a policy of neutrality.
On the Republican side, the party sought to heal the bitter split that had occurred in 1912, which had seen former President Theodore Roosevelt run as a Progressive, effectively dividing the Republican vote. Party leaders in 1916 aimed for a moderate candidate acceptable to both factions. They turned to Supreme Court Justice Charles Evans Hughes, who had served on the court since 1910 and had the advantage of not having publicly spoken about political issues for six years. Hughes, though not actively seeking the nomination, indicated he would not decline it and won on the third ballot. Former Vice President Charles W. Fairbanks was nominated as his running mate. Hughes remains the only serving Supreme Court justice to be nominated for president by a major political party.
The Progressive Party's Role and Decline
The Progressive Party, which had significantly impacted the 1912 election, played a diminished but still notable role in 1916. With Theodore Roosevelt refusing their nomination, the party quickly fell into disarray. Roosevelt, convinced that another third-party run would only benefit the Democrats, endorsed Republican nominee Charles Evans Hughes. He also harbored a strong dislike for President Wilson, believing Wilson was allowing Germany and other warring nations to "bully" the United States. Roosevelt campaigned for the Republican ticket, arguing that the U.S. had a moral obligation to support the Allies and that neutrality was both cowardly and dangerous.
Despite Roosevelt's endorsement of Hughes, not all Progressives followed suit. Many members returned to the Republican Party, but a substantial minority supported Wilson, particularly for his efforts in keeping the United States out of World War I. The Progressive Party National Committee eventually begrudgingly endorsed Hughes on June 26, recognizing that without Roosevelt, the party lacked electoral staying power. There was a weak attempt to replace Roosevelt on the ticket with Victor Murdock, but the motion was defeated. The party did nominate businessman John M. Parker of Louisiana for Vice President, and electoral tickets were still put in place in some areas, hoping to hold the balance of power in a close contest.
Campaign Strategies and Key Issues
Wilson's campaign, advised by Edward M. House, strategically built its message around the "He Kept Us Out of War" slogan. Democrats argued that a Republican victory would lead to war with both Mexico and Germany. This position was particularly critical in winning over Western states. Hughes, on the other hand, advocated for greater mobilization and preparedness for war. However, with Wilson having successfully pressured the Germans to suspend unrestricted submarine warfare, it became difficult for Hughes to effectively attack Wilson's peace platform. Instead, Hughes criticized Wilson's military interventions in Mexico and his support for "pro-labor" laws, such as limiting the workday to eight hours, which Hughes argued were harmful to business interests. These criticisms, however, gained little traction, especially among factory workers who supported such laws.
Former President Theodore Roosevelt vigorously supported Hughes, campaigning on the argument that the United States had a moral obligation to support the Allies. He publicly criticized Wilson, stating, "President Wilson's ignoble shirking of responsibility has been clothed in an utterly misleading phrase, the phrase of a coward, He kept us out of war. In actual reality, war has been creeping nearer and nearer... and we face it without policy, plan, purpose or preparation." Despite this pro-Entente sentiment from figures like Roosevelt, most American voters still preferred to avoid involvement in the war and maintain neutrality.
The Election Results and Their Aftermath
The 1916 election was one of the closest in U.S. history. Wilson defeated Hughes by nearly 600,000 votes out of approximately 18.5 million cast in the popular vote. In the Electoral College, Wilson secured a narrow majority, winning 277 electoral votes to Hughes's 254. This was the closest electoral vote margin in U.S. history at the time. Wilson carried 30 states, while Hughes won 18. The outcome hinged on several swing states, which Wilson won by razor-thin margins. California, in particular, proved to be the tipping point state, with Wilson's top vote-getting elector receiving just 3,773 more votes than Hughes's top vote-getting elector.
Hughes made a critical mistake in California by basing his campaign with conservative Republican regulars rather than the Progressive faction, despite Governor Hiram Johnson's endorsement. Johnson, who had been Roosevelt's running mate in 1912, did speak for Hughes but did not mobilize the Progressive faction, which viewed Wilson as more genuinely progressive. Wilson's victory in California, by a mere 0.3%, ultimately secured him the presidency. While Wilson lost his home state of New Jersey and several other states he had won in 1912, he managed to win Utah and Washington, which he had lost previously. The Socialist party, under Allan L. Benson, received 3.19% of the vote, and the Prohibition party received 1.19%. The election results underscored the nation's divided sentiments regarding neutrality and preparedness, setting the stage for Wilson's second term amidst escalating global tensions.
Wilson's Contingency Plan
In the weeks leading up to the election, President Wilson harbored concerns about a potential loss to Hughes. He worried about remaining a "lame duck" until March 1917, especially given the increasing likelihood of the United States entering World War I. To address this, Wilson privately devised a contingency plan: if Hughes were to win, Wilson would immediately appoint him Secretary of State. Following this appointment, both Wilson and Vice President Marshall would resign, allowing Hughes to immediately become acting president. This plan aimed to avoid a lengthy lame-duck presidency during a critical period for the nation. This extraordinary plan was first publicly revealed two decades later in the memoirs of Robert Lansing, who was Wilson's Secretary of State and would have had to resign or be dismissed to facilitate Hughes's appointment. This reveals the depth of Wilson's concern for national stability and preparedness on the eve of potential wartime involvement.
