1. Expected Fantasy Points (xFP)
This is the holy grail. Instead of just counting touches, xFP calculates how many points an average player should have scored based on their specific opportunities, like field position and target depth. A player with high xFP but low actual points is a prime
candidate to bounce back.
2. Yards Per Route Run (YPRR)
Forget yards per catch. YPRR measures a player’s receiving yards divided by the number of routes they actually ran. It’s the best way to identify truly efficient receivers who produce every time they’re on the field, not just when they get targeted.
3. Average Depth of Target (aDOT)
This tells you how far downfield a player is being targeted, on average. A high aDOT receiver is your big-play, week-winning boom threat, while a low aDOT guy is a steadier, reception-floor PPR asset. It’s all about understanding a player's role.
4. Air Yards
Air Yards measure the distance the ball travels in the air on a pass attempt to a specific receiver, regardless of whether it's caught. Unrealized Air Yards (the yards on incomplete passes) can point to future production if a QB and receiver start connecting.
5. Target Share
A simple but powerful metric, this is the percentage of a team’s total pass attempts directed at a single player. A receiver earning a 25% or higher target share is the undisputed focal point of their offense and offers a reliable weekly floor.
6. Yards Created Per Touch
This running back metric isolates a player's contribution by measuring the yards they gain after the first evaded tackle. It shows which backs can make something out of nothing, separating elusive playmakers from those who just get what their offensive line blocks for them.
7. Route Participation
This stat simply tracks the percentage of a team's passing plays where a player ran a route. A high route participation rate (above 85-90%) means a player is almost always on the field in passing situations, maximizing their opportunity to earn targets and score points.
8. Red Zone Target Share
Volume is great, but volume near the goal line is fantasy gold. This metric shows who a quarterback trusts most when the team is in scoring position. A high red zone share is one of the strongest indicators of touchdown upside.
9. Play-Action Passing Rate
For quarterbacks, this shows how often they use a play-action fake. Play-action passes historically lead to more efficient and explosive passing plays. A quarterback on a team with a high play-action rate often has access to a higher ceiling.
10. Completion Percentage Over Expected (CPOE)
Some completions are harder than others. CPOE measures a quarterback's performance against the difficulty of their throws. A QB with a high CPOE is elevating their offense by making tough plays, a sign of true talent that raw completion percentage can miss.
11. Breakaway Run Rate
This running back stat measures the percentage of carries that go for 15 or more yards. It’s the perfect way to identify home-run hitters who can flip a fantasy matchup with a single touch, even if they don’t get a massive volume of carries.
12. Weighted Opportunity Rating (WOPR)
WOPR combines a player's share of team targets with their share of team air yards into a single, comprehensive metric. It provides a more complete picture of a receiver's role and value to an offense than either stat does alone.
13. Yards After Catch (YAC) Over Expected
Next Gen Stats can now calculate how many yards a player should have gained after a catch based on their location, speed, and the defenders nearby. YAC Over Expected highlights the players who consistently create extra yardage with their vision and athleticism.
14. Pressure Rate
For those in IDP (Individual Defensive Player) leagues, this is crucial. It measures how often a defensive player pressures the quarterback on a pass rush. It’s a far better predictor of future sacks than looking at last season's sack totals alone.
15. PFF Grades
Pro Football Focus grades every player on every play, providing a score that reflects performance independent of stats. A player with a high grade but low fantasy production is often a sign of untapped potential, making them a great target before they break out.
