A landmark 30-year treaty on sharing the waters of the Ganges River, a lifeline for millions in both India and Bangladesh, is set to expire on December 12, 2026. As the deadline approaches, a critical diplomatic turning point looms.
A Treaty Born from Decades of Dispute
The story of the Ganges
water-sharing arrangement is intrinsically linked to the Farakka Barrage in West Bengal, located just 20 kilometres from the Bangladesh border. Commissioned by India in 1975, the barrage was designed to divert water into the Hooghly River to preserve the navigability of the Kolkata Port. However, for downstream Bangladesh, this diversion raised immediate fears of devastating water shortages during the dry season, which runs from January to May. The ensuing dispute led to several negotiations and even UN intervention, culminating in a short-lived agreement in 1977. After years of uncertainty, a more stable solution was found on December 12, 1996, when a 30-year comprehensive treaty was signed by the prime ministers of both nations, establishing a formula for water sharing during the lean months.
Why This Water Matters to Bangladesh
For Bangladesh, the flow of the Ganges, which becomes the Padma River within its borders, is not just about water; it is about survival. The river basin is home to over 50 million people in Bangladesh, supporting a vast agricultural belt, a thriving fishing industry, and delicate ecosystems. Reduced freshwater flow has had severe consequences over the years. It increases salinity intrusion in the southwestern coastal regions, damaging soil fertility and threatening the world’s largest mangrove forest, the Sundarbans. Reports indicate that major irrigation projects have become less effective due to water scarcity, and the livelihoods of farmers and fishermen hang in the balance. With the treaty's expiration looming and no automatic renewal clause, Bangladesh fears a return to a period of uncertainty that could intensify these existing challenges.
What Both Sides Want Now
As negotiations for a post-2026 arrangement begin to take shape, both countries have distinct priorities. Bangladesh is pushing for a new or revised agreement that includes a 'guarantee clause'. This clause, which was part of the 1977 deal but absent from the 1996 treaty, would ensure a minimum guaranteed water flow, providing greater security during the driest periods. Dhaka has formed a high-level committee to handle negotiations and has repeatedly requested to begin formal talks. India has stated that discussions will proceed through the established bilateral mechanism, the Joint Rivers Commission (JRC), and that technical-level meetings have been ongoing. However, New Delhi also faces its own pressures, including rising domestic water demands in states like Bihar and West Bengal, which have called for a renegotiation that protects their interests.
A Complex Diplomatic Path Forward
The renewal of the Ganges treaty is not happening in a vacuum. It is set against a backdrop of broader water politics between the two neighbours, who share 54 transboundary rivers. The longstalled agreement on the Teesta River serves as a constant reminder of the complexities involved in water diplomacy. Sources suggest that India is considering changes to the treaty, possibly including a shorter term. The relationship between the two governments is a crucial factor, and some reports indicate that a high_level visit from the Bangladeshi Prime Minister to India may be a prerequisite for moving forward. While Bangladesh remains hopeful for a resolution through dialogue, it has also suggested it is prepared to approach international forums if a fair agreement cannot be reached.
