The National Picture: A Subdued Outlook
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has forecast that rainfall for the country as a whole during the crucial months of August and September is likely to be 'below normal'. This is defined as rainfall less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA).
The LPA for this two-month period, based on data from 1971 to 2020, is 422.8 mm. This overall subdued forecast comes after a July that saw near-normal rainfall, which helped recover some of the deficits from a dry June. However, the headline figure of a 'below-normal' latter half of the monsoon suggests a broad trend of diminished rainfall across the country, a prospect that carries significant weight for agriculture and water management. August in particular is expected to be drier than usual.
Why the National Average Is a Mirage
Relying on a single nationwide number can be deeply misleading. An all-India average can be skewed by intense rainfall in one or two regions, effectively masking severe deficits elsewhere. Think of it this way: if one region gets 130% of its usual rain and another gets only 70%, the average comes out to a perfectly 'normal' 100%, but the reality on the ground is one of floods and another of drought. This year, that uneven distribution is the most critical part of the forecast. Even after a near-normal July, almost half of the country's districts were still experiencing deficient rainfall. This highlights that the spatial and temporal distribution—where the rain falls and when—is far more important for farmers, city planners, and travellers than the total quantum of rainfall at the end of the season.
The Regional Reality: A Tale of Two Monsoons
This season is shaping up to be a story of sharp contrasts. While the overall forecast is below-normal, some areas are expected to receive normal to even above-normal rainfall. These include parts of Peninsular India, Central India, northern parts of Northwest India, and East and Northeast India. In contrast, many other parts of the country are very likely to face below-normal rainfall. Western India, in particular, may be among the worst-hit during this second half of the monsoon. This creates a complex picture where some states might need to brace for floods and related disruptions, while others must intensify water conservation efforts to manage potential shortages. The local, zone-specific forecast is where the actionable information truly lies.
The Forces Shaping Your Weather
What's causing this dramatic regional variation? A key factor is the strengthening El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean. El Niño, a warming of the sea surface, is historically associated with weaker monsoon winds and suppressed rainfall over India. Currently, moderate El Niño conditions are expected to strengthen through the rest of the season. At the same time, another climate phenomenon, the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is currently neutral. A positive IOD can sometimes counteract El Niño's effects and boost rainfall, but forecasts suggest neutral conditions will likely persist for now, though a positive IOD might develop later in September. This interplay between a strong El Niño and a neutral IOD is a primary driver behind the forecast of a subdued but highly variable monsoon.
Practical Advice for Households
For households, this forecast requires paying close attention to local updates. In regions flagged for below-normal rainfall, especially across large parts of the country not explicitly listed for excess rain, water conservation is key. Expect higher-than-normal temperatures, as the IMD has also predicted warmer days and nights for most of the country in August. This could strain power grids and increase household expenses. For those in the zones expecting normal to above-normal rain, such as parts of Central and Peninsular India, the concern is different. It’s wise to be prepared for intense rainfall events, which can lead to waterlogging, traffic disruption, and strain on civic infrastructure. Check that your home is prepared for heavy downpours.
A Guide for Travellers
If you have travel plans for August or September, the regional forecast is your most important tool. For regions expecting above-normal rainfall, be aware of the heightened risk of landslides, especially in hilly areas, and flash floods. Road and rail travel can be disrupted, so build flexibility into your itinerary and monitor weather alerts closely. States like Gujarat, Kerala, and Karnataka have already seen heavy rainfall alerts. Conversely, travel to regions with a predicted deficit might be less affected by rain, but associated high temperatures could be a factor to consider. Always check the specific IMD forecast for your destination before and during your trip, as conditions can change rapidly. Don't let the national average lull you into a false sense of security.
