A Monsoon Season of Extremes
The 2026 southwest monsoon officially ended on September 30 with a significant 13% rainfall deficit, making it one of the driest in recent years. This was not a simple dry spell; the season was marked by wild swings, with weeks of heavy surplus rainfall followed
by deep deficits. This erratic pattern was influenced by a strengthening El Niño, which weakened the overall monsoon circulation. The result is a country with a patchwork of conditions: some regions are drier than usual, while others are still dealing with the lingering effects of late-season rain. This unusual end to the monsoon sets a complex stage for October travel.
North India: Clear Skies and Lingering Moisture
For travellers heading to the Golden Triangle (Delhi, Agra, Jaipur) or the Himalayan foothills, October usually promises clear, sunny days. The good news is that the southwest monsoon has largely withdrawn from this region. However, the withdrawal has been uneven. In Uttar Pradesh, for example, the monsoon's retreat was stalled for over a week, leaving behind higher than normal moisture. Furthermore, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has noted that an active Western Disturbance is likely to affect northwest India in the first week of October. This means that while days will be generally pleasant, travellers should be prepared for the possibility of isolated showers, especially in the mountains.
The South: Navigating the Northeast Monsoon
Southern India, particularly the southeastern coast, operates on a different weather calendar. October marks the beginning of the Northeast Monsoon, which brings significant rainfall to states like Tamil Nadu and parts of Kerala and Andhra Pradesh. While the rest of the country is drying out, this region is just getting started with its main rainy season. The IMD forecasts normal to above-normal rainfall for the southern peninsula from October to December. As of late September and early October, heavy rain is already likely in isolated places across Kerala, South Interior Karnataka, and Tamil Nadu. Travellers to this region should pack umbrellas and waterproof gear, and be mindful that outdoor activities may be affected by showers.
East & West Coasts: Cyclone Season on High Alert
The post-monsoon transition in October is a notorious time for cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. This year, the threat feels more pronounced. A deep depression crossed the coast in late September, causing extremely heavy rainfall in Odisha and Andhra Pradesh. While that system has passed, conditions remain volatile. Forecasters have noted that even minor low-pressure systems can rapidly intensify during this period. In fact, one assessment from ISRO's Space Applications Centre warned that the cumulative destructive energy of post-monsoon cyclones in 2026 could be significantly higher than the historical average. While this doesn't guarantee a storm will hit during your trip, it's a critical factor for anyone planning a coastal holiday in states like Odisha, West Bengal, Goa, or Maharashtra. Always check local advisories before and during your travel.
Central India: A Drier Than Usual Outlook
Central India, including states like Madhya Pradesh and parts of Maharashtra, is expected to see a largely dry post-monsoon season. The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for most of central India from October to December. The monsoon's withdrawal from this region is expected to complete in early October, paving the way for clearer, more stable weather. This makes it a relatively safe bet for travel, with pleasant daytime temperatures and minimal rain. However, some areas like West Rajasthan have experienced a rare drought, recording their first deficient monsoon in eight years, which could impact the landscape's usual post-rain vibrancy.
