A Monsoon of Extremes
The 2026 monsoon season, which officially concludes at the end of September, has been anything but normal. Characterised by a significant deficit in June, a brief recovery in July, and another weak spell in August, the overall rainfall has been patchy
and unevenly distributed across the country. As of late August, the national rainfall deficit hovered around 13% below the long-period average. However, this national figure masks deep regional disparities. Key agricultural states like Punjab, Bihar, and Andhra Pradesh have reported significant shortfalls of 30-40%, while others have seen normal or even surplus rain. This spatial imbalance is a major concern, as crop health depends on timely and adequate rain in specific cultivation zones, not just a favourable national average. The performance in September has been critical for making up some of this deficit, but the season has largely followed the weak trend predicted by meteorological agencies due to prevailing El Niño conditions.
The Critical Role of Soil Moisture and Reservoirs
The monsoon's primary importance for the rabi season lies in the legacy it leaves behind: soil moisture and reservoir water levels. These two factors are crucial for the sowing and initial growth of winter crops, which are planted from October onwards. The uneven rains have resulted in a mixed picture. As of mid-September, overall water storage in India's major reservoirs was below the long-term normal and significantly lower than last year. The situation is particularly concerning in the southern and northern regions, which show sharp deficits in reservoir storage. Similarly, soil moisture levels are below average in many key rabi-growing states, including Karnataka, Maharashtra, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh. August 2026 was also recorded as India's hottest since 1901 for that month, further depleting moisture. While some late-season rains have provided a partial recovery, the starting conditions for the rabi season remain challenging.
Outlook for Wheat
Wheat is the most important rabi crop, accounting for a huge share of India's food grain production. It is heavily reliant on the moisture left by the monsoon. The primary wheat-growing states are in northern and central India. While some of these areas have fared better than the south and east, regions like Punjab are still facing rainfall deficits. The concern is that low soil moisture could delay sowing or impact the initial growth of the wheat crop. Farmers with access to irrigation can mitigate this, but a significant portion of agriculture remains rain-fed. Lower reservoir levels in the northern region could also strain irrigation capacity later in the season. Despite these challenges, government support, including an increased Minimum Support Price (MSP) for the 2026-27 season, aims to encourage farmers to maintain acreage. However, the ultimate yield will heavily depend on winter rains and temperatures, as any heatwaves during the crucial grain-filling stage in spring can severely reduce output.
Prospects for Pulses and Oilseeds
Pulses and oilseeds are also vital rabi crops, crucial for nutrition and managing food inflation. For pulses like gram (chana) and lentils (masur), the situation is complex. These crops are often grown in rain-fed areas of central and southern India, where both soil moisture and reservoir levels are under stress. A dry start to the sowing season could impact the acreage and yield of these protein-rich staples. Any shortfall in domestic production could lead to increased reliance on imports to stabilise prices. Similarly, for oilseeds like rapeseed and mustard, which are key rabi crops, adequate soil moisture is essential for germination. States like Rajasthan, a major mustard producer, have experienced below-normal rainfall, posing a risk to the crop. While farmers may shift towards less water-intensive crops in some areas, the overall success of the rabi oilseed and pulse harvest is now closely tied to post-monsoon rainfall and the judicious use of stored water.
