A Scaled-Down But Crucial Games
The 2026 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow represents a significant shift from previous editions. After the original host, Victoria, Australia, withdrew, Glasgow stepped in with a more compact, scaled-down event. The sports programme has been trimmed from 19
in Birmingham 2022 to just 10. This change has massive implications for India, as several of its traditionally dominant sports have been excluded from the schedule. Wrestling, badminton, table tennis, and shooting, which have historically been major medal sources for the Indian contingent, will not feature in Glasgow. This immediately recalibrates any medal predictions and forces a focus on the events that remain.
Revisiting Birmingham 2022
At the 2022 Commonwealth Games in Birmingham, India secured an impressive tally of 61 medals, including 22 golds, 16 silvers, and 23 bronzes, finishing fourth overall. This was achieved even without shooting on the programme, a sport where India has historically won 135 medals. The success in 2022 was powered by exceptional performances in wrestling, which contributed 12 medals, and weightlifting, which brought in 10. Boxing, athletics, and badminton also added significantly to the tally. However, of those 61 medals, a staggering 28 came from sports that are now excluded from the Glasgow 2026 lineup, including all medals from wrestling and badminton.
Where Will the Medals Come From?
With the revised sports list, India's medal hopes now rest heavily on three core disciplines: athletics, boxing, and weightlifting. Athletics, in particular, is poised to be a major contributor. At Birmingham, even without superstar javelin thrower Neeraj Chopra, the athletics squad won eight medals. With Chopra expected to compete in Glasgow, alongside proven performers like long jumper Murali Sreeshankar, the potential is even greater. Boxing remains a strong suit, with analysts predicting a haul of around eight medals from a strong contingent. Weightlifting, led by Olympic medallist Mirabai Chanu, is also expected to deliver multiple podium finishes, with projections around seven medals. Judo is another sport where India will look to add to its tally.
Faces of India's Campaign
The nation's hopes will be carried by a mix of seasoned champions and rising stars. Javelin star Neeraj Chopra, who won gold in 2018 but missed the 2022 games, will be the face of the contingent. In weightlifting, Mirabai Chanu is a strong favourite for her third consecutive Commonwealth Games gold. The boxing squad features prominent names like Lovlina Borgohain and Jaismine Lamboria, who are expected to be top contenders in their categories. In athletics, Murali Sreeshankar (long jump) and Praveen Chithravel (triple jump) are considered genuine medal prospects based on their recent form.
The Final Prediction: A Realistic Tally
Given the exclusion of so many medal-rich sports, it is unrealistic to expect India to match its hauls from Delhi 2010 (101 medals) or even Gold Coast 2018 (66 medals). The 61 medals from Birmingham 2022 also appear out of reach. Analysts' projections for Glasgow 2026 are more conservative, with most predictions placing India's potential tally in the range of 35 to 45 medals. A successful campaign under these new circumstances would involve maximizing opportunities in athletics, boxing, and weightlifting. While the final number might be lower than in recent years, a strong performance across the available sports would still solidify India's position as a leading nation in the Commonwealth and demonstrate its growing versatility in the sporting arena.
