A Perfect Storm of Demand
The primary reason for the fare surge is immense, concentrated demand. The festive calendar, especially around Diwali (November 8, 2026) and Chhath Puja, sees millions of people travelling back to their hometowns to celebrate with family. This year, the demand is particularly
intense. A recent survey revealed that 72% of travellers are paying more for festive flights this year compared to last. This seasonal rush is amplified by a broader, sustained interest in travel following years of pandemic-related restrictions. With long weekends and holidays clustered together, families and leisure travellers are all competing for a limited number of seats, creating a bottleneck that airlines are quick to capitalize on through dynamic pricing models. As cheaper fare buckets sell out, prices for the remaining seats climb steeply.
The Supply Side: Fewer Flights, Fuller Planes
While demand is soaring, the supply of available seats has not kept pace. In fact, on some routes, it has shrunk. For the October-December quarter, airlines scheduled about 5% fewer domestic flights compared to the same period last year. While they have tried to compensate by using larger aircraft, leading to only a 1.2% drop in overall seat capacity, the reduction in flight frequencies means fewer departure options for passengers on any given day. Major carriers like IndiGo and Air India, which together dominate over 90% of the domestic market, have both trimmed their capacity compared to the previous year. This capacity rationalisation is a strategic response to various pressures, including delays in new aircraft deliveries and efforts to maintain profitability. However, for travellers, it translates into a fiercer scramble for tickets on popular routes.
The Routes Feeling the Pinch
The fare hikes are not uniform, with metro-to-metro and metro-to-hometown routes experiencing the most dramatic increases. For travel around the Diwali week, one-way fares have crossed the ₹15,000 mark on several key corridors. For instance, tickets from Mumbai to Patna have been seen as high as ₹25,643, and Bengaluru to Patna has touched ₹26,053. Even on the busiest trunk routes, the surge is significant. One-way fares on the Delhi-Hyderabad route are up by 68% year-on-year, while Mumbai-Kolkata has seen a 51% jump. Other routes like Delhi-Mumbai, Delhi-Bengaluru, and Bengaluru-Kolkata are also witnessing prices that are thousands of rupees above their off-peak averages, with some last-minute tickets costing two or even three times the normal fare.
Fuel Costs and Other Pressures
Beyond the basic economics of supply and demand, rising operational costs for airlines are another critical factor. Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) prices have seen steep, consecutive monthly increases, climbing by a staggering ₹16 per litre at the start of October. Since fuel can account for up to 40-50% of an airline's operating costs, this surge puts immense pressure on their finances. In response, major carriers like IndiGo, Air India, and Akasa Air have all introduced or revised their fuel surcharges, directly passing on a portion of this increased cost to passengers. These charges can range from ₹375 to ₹1,200 per domestic flight, adding another layer to the already high ticket prices. The government has so far refrained from capping airfares, instead urging airlines to self-regulate and keep prices reasonable.
