What is Monsoon Withdrawal?
The monsoon doesn’t just stop; it retreats. This withdrawal is a gradual process, marking the end of the four-month rainy season that is the lifeblood of the subcontinent. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has a specific set of criteria to declare
the withdrawal. It requires the cessation of rainfall for five consecutive days, a significant drop in moisture levels, and the establishment of an anticyclone—a high-pressure wind pattern—in the lower atmosphere over a region. This process typically begins in the extreme northwestern parts of India, around West Rajasthan, sometime after the first week of September, and then slowly progresses eastward and southward over several weeks. By the time it leaves the southern peninsula around mid-October, the weather across much of North and Central India has already transitioned to a drier, cooler post-monsoon phase.
The Signs for September 2026
While the monsoon has remained active in some parts of the country, with heavy rainfall alerts issued for states like Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand into the second week of September, the bigger picture shows a system in retreat. Recent satellite imagery reveals vast, strikingly cloud-free stretches over Northwest and Central India. Forecasters note that strong, dry northwesterly winds have begun to sweep across North India, clearing the skies and halting rain activity in states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Gujarat. Although the official withdrawal has not been declared as of September 8, these are strong indicators that conditions are becoming favorable. According to the IMD and global weather models, the formal retreat is expected to commence around September 15-17, starting from the northwest as usual. An anticyclone is projected to strengthen over the region around September 21, which would firmly establish the withdrawal process.
An Erratic Season Concludes
The 2026 monsoon season has been characterized by its erratic nature. Despite intense downpours and flooding in some areas—Bareilly in Uttar Pradesh, for instance, broke an all-time rainfall record with one massive spell—the country as a whole has a rainfall deficit of around 14% as of early September. This uneven distribution is a hallmark of recent monsoon seasons, often influenced by larger climatic factors like El Niño, which has been strengthening and is associated with weaker monsoons in India. The South Peninsula is facing a significant deficit of 27%, while East and Northeast India are short by 24%. This patchiness, with prolonged dry spells punctuated by extreme rain, has put stress on agriculture and water resources. Below-average rains in September could further impact soil moisture, which is crucial for the upcoming winter crop planting season.
What Weather Comes Next?
As the southwest monsoon retreats from the north, it doesn't mean the end of all rain for India. The withdrawal from the north paves the way for the onset of the northeast monsoon, which brings crucial rainfall to southern states like Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Karnataka between October and December. However, for North and Central India, the coming weeks will bring a distinct change. Daytime temperatures are expected to rise temporarily due to the clearer skies and dry winds, leading to a brief spell of hotter weather. This will be followed by the pleasant, milder temperatures of autumn. Meanwhile, the southern peninsula will see subdued rainfall for the next week or so as it awaits its own monsoon system. This transition period is a complex dance of atmospheric systems, where one part of the country is drying out while another is preparing for its primary rainy season.
