Understanding the 2026 Weather Shift
The 2026 Southwest Monsoon has concluded with a significant rainfall deficit, marking it as one of the lowest since 2015. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), the season ended with rainfall about 13% below the national average, heavily
influenced by a strengthening El Niño pattern. While the monsoon's withdrawal began around September 19, a couple of days later than usual, the overall season was marked by uneven distribution. For October, the IMD forecasts below-normal rainfall for most of the country. However, there are key exceptions, with parts of northwest India and the southern peninsula expected to see normal to above-normal rain. This creates a complex picture for travellers: while many regions will be drier, some traditional spots might still see lingering showers.
Himalayan States: Greener but Be Cautious
For destinations in Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, October usually promises clear mountain views. This year, the tail end of the monsoon means landscapes are exceptionally lush. Places like Shimla, Manali, and Darjeeling are popular choices for their pleasant, cool weather. However, the forecast for some parts of northwest India includes spells of normal to above-normal rain. Travellers should remain flexible and check local conditions before embarking on remote treks, as the risk of surprise showers or difficult road conditions can persist, especially in the first half of the month. The withdrawal should be complete from the central and eastern parts of the country by around October 10.
The Golden Triangle: Clear and Welcoming
The classic circuit of Delhi, Agra, and Jaipur is heading into its prime season. The monsoon withdrawal from this region was relatively swift, completing around September 23. A drier-than-usual forecast for October means you can expect clear skies and comfortable daytime temperatures, perfect for sightseeing. The deficient monsoon has a silver lining here: less atmospheric moisture means clearer air and less haze, offering stunning photo opportunities at landmarks like the Taj Mahal. Evenings are expected to be pleasantly cool, making it ideal for exploring markets and enjoying outdoor dining.
South India: A Tale of Two Coasts
The Southern Peninsula presents a divided forecast. While the region as a whole experienced a rainfall deficit during the main monsoon, the post-monsoon season (October-December) is predicted to have normal rainfall, which is significant for this area. This means destinations in Kerala, like Munnar and Wayanad, will be breathtakingly green but may still experience showers from the incoming Northeast Monsoon. This can be perfect for those seeking lush scenery without peak-season crowds. For a drier bet, consider destinations in Karnataka like Hampi and Coorg. With the monsoon having replenished the landscape, the ancient ruins and coffee plantations will be at their scenic best under increasingly sunny skies.
Coastal Getaways: Goa and the Andamans
October is often seen as a sweet spot for visiting Goa—just after the heavy rains but before the year-end crowds arrive. This year, the transition might be slightly prolonged. While beach shacks and water sports begin to open, lingering moisture could lead to intermittent showers early in the month. This offers a chance to enjoy a quieter, greener Goa with gushing waterfalls. Similarly, the Andaman and Nicobar Islands are a great option in October. The weather begins to clear up, offering excellent conditions for snorkelling and exploring marine life at places like Havelock Island before the peak tourist rush begins.
