The Government's Stance: No Price Caps
The central government has confirmed it will not impose a cap on airfares during the upcoming festive period. Civil Aviation Minister K Rammohan Naidu stated that while the government will not regulate prices directly, it will engage with airlines to
encourage them to keep fares at a 'reasonable level'. This marks a continuation of the free-market approach, where ticket prices are determined by supply and demand, a departure from the fare bands that were in place during the pandemic. The ministry has used similar advisory tactics during past periods of high demand, but the effectiveness of this 'moral suasion' remains to be seen in a market with intense pressure on capacity.
A Perfect Storm for Expensive Flights
Several factors are converging to drive prices skyward. Airlines primarily use dynamic pricing, where fares increase automatically as cheaper seats are booked and demand rises. This festive season, demand is exceptionally high, fuelled by a strong desire to travel for celebrations like Dussehra and Diwali. Compounding the issue is a reported drop in domestic seat capacity. In September, overall domestic capacity fell by 5.6% year-on-year, with major players like IndiGo and Air India reducing their available seats. This tighter supply, coupled with surging demand, creates the ideal conditions for sharp price hikes. Routes connecting major metro cities to hometowns are expected to be the most affected.
The Airline Perspective: Rising Costs
Airlines point to escalating operational costs as a key reason for higher fares. The price of Aviation Turbine Fuel (ATF) has been a significant concern. According to the Civil Aviation Minister, fuel accounts for 40-43% of an airline's operating costs, meaning even a small rise directly impacts ticket prices. Recent geopolitical events in West Asia have contributed to this volatility, adding pressure on carriers who are already working to recoup pandemic-related losses. While the government has taken some measures to create a price stabilisation fund for ATF, the immediate pressure on airline balance sheets often gets passed on to the consumer during peak demand periods.
Which Routes Will Hurt Your Wallet Most?
Travellers on certain routes will feel the pinch more than others. Flights connecting major employment hubs like Delhi, Mumbai, and Bengaluru to cities in states like Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, and Kerala traditionally see the highest spikes. For instance, return fares on routes such as Delhi-Bengaluru and Delhi-Kolkata are already being quoted at around ₹16,000 to ₹17,000 for the Diwali weekend. One-way tickets from Mumbai to cities like Patna and Lucknow have reportedly crossed the ₹17,000 mark. Social media is buzzing with travellers noting that some popular routes are seeing prices double compared to previous years.
Your Game Plan: How to Book Smart and Save Money
While the market is challenging, you are not powerless. The single most effective strategy is to book as early as possible. Experts recommend booking festive flights at least 60 to 90 days in advance, as prices climb steeply within the last 30 days. Flexibility is your next best friend. If your travel dates are not fixed, use fare comparison websites to check prices for a few days before and after your ideal departure. Flying on the main day of the festival, like Diwali itself, can sometimes be 20-40% cheaper than travelling in the days leading up to it. Also, consider flying into alternative, smaller airports that may be a short drive from your final destination. Finally, remember that under DGCA rules effective March 2026, you can cancel or modify a ticket for free within 48 hours of booking, provided the flight is at least seven days away for domestic travel.
