The Current 'Break' Phase
Large swathes of North, Northwest, and Peninsular India are currently experiencing a 'break' in the monsoon. This phase is characterized by a significant reduction in rainfall, clearer skies, and a subsequent rise in daytime temperatures. According to
the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this slowdown is most noticeable across southern India, with rainfall activity expected to remain subdued for about a week. Regions including Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh are forecast to see largely dry and clear weather for the next five to six days due to strong, dry northwesterly winds. This pause comes after an erratic season which has seen a cumulative rainfall deficit of around 14% for the country as of early September.
Why Monsoon Breaks Occur
A 'break monsoon' is a normal, albeit sometimes frustrating, part of the season's cycle. It typically happens when the monsoon trough—an elongated low-pressure area that is the spine of the monsoon—shifts northward towards the Himalayan foothills. When this trough moves, it concentrates rainfall over the hills while leaving the plains and central parts of the country dry. This year, the situation has been influenced by several factors, including the strengthening El Niño phenomenon, which tends to suppress monsoon rainfall and lead to warmer temperatures. August 2026 was recorded as the warmest August in India since 1901, partly due to these conditions.
A Revival Brewing in the Bay
This dry spell is not expected to be the final word for the 2026 monsoon season. Forecasters are closely monitoring the Bay of Bengal, where the seeds of the next wet spell are expected to form. The IMD's extended-range forecast indicates that a fresh cyclonic circulation is likely to develop over the central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. This system is then projected to evolve into a low-pressure area, which acts like an atmospheric engine, pulling in moisture from the sea and driving it inland. Current projections suggest this new system could begin to influence weather across East, Central, and North India sometime between September 12 and September 18.
Which Regions Can Expect Rain?
The revival is not expected to be uniform across the country. The initial impact of the new low-pressure system will likely be felt in eastern and central India. The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rain over Chhattisgarh and Odisha starting from September 10, and in Vidarbha from September 10 to 12. As the system moves inland, it could trigger another round of widespread rainfall and potentially mark one of the last significant monsoon pushes over northern India before the seasonal withdrawal begins. However, Peninsular India may remain relatively dry for a while longer. This uneven distribution has been a hallmark of the 2026 monsoon, with some areas facing deficits while others have seen intense downpours.
The Importance of September Showers
The performance of the monsoon in September is critical, especially for agriculture. Many summer-sown (kharif) crops are in their crucial grain-filling stage, where adequate moisture is essential for good yields. A prolonged dry spell can stress these crops and increase farmers' reliance on irrigation, driving up costs. Furthermore, September rainfall is vital for replenishing soil moisture ahead of the winter (rabi) cropping season, which typically begins in October. While the IMD has predicted that September rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be below normal, this upcoming spell could bring much-needed relief to key agricultural belts in central and eastern India.
