The IMD's Below-Normal Forecast
The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that rainfall for August and September is likely to be below normal for the country as a whole. This means precipitation is expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period Average (LPA), a benchmark
based on historical data. The forecast for August specifically also indicates below-normal rain. This outlook is influenced by the strengthening of El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, a phenomenon often associated with a weaker monsoon in India. While July saw some recovery with slightly above-normal rain, the cumulative deficit from June remains, making the performance of the monsoon in the next two months exceptionally crucial.
Why All Eyes Are on the Reservoirs
India's reservoirs are the nation's lifelines, storing water that is essential for drinking, irrigation for agriculture, and hydroelectric power generation. The monsoon season is the primary period when these reservoirs are replenished. Insufficient rainfall during this time means lower water levels, which can lead to significant challenges across various sectors. According to the latest data from the Central Water Commission around the end of July, live water storage in 166 major reservoirs was at about 44% of their total capacity. This figure was significantly lower than the storage level during the same period last year, which stood at nearly 65%, highlighting a year-on-year deficit. With a below-normal rainfall forecast, the pressure to manage the existing water judiciously increases manifold.
A Regionally Mixed Picture
While the national forecast points towards a deficit, the situation is not uniform across the country. The IMD has indicated that while many parts of the country may see below-normal rain, some areas in peninsular, central, and northeast India could receive normal to above-normal rainfall. This regional variation is already visible in reservoir levels. For instance, recent heavy rains have brought significant relief to Mumbai, with the seven lakes supplying the city crossing 90% of their storage capacity. In contrast, the southern region has been facing a steeper crisis, with 47 major reservoirs holding only about 34% of their capacity by the end of July, a sharp drop from over 75% at the same time last year. This disparity means that while some cities may have eased water concerns, others are anxiously watching the skies and their dam levels.
Implications for Farmers and Food Security
The August-September rainfall is vital for the Kharif sowing season, which has already seen a 5% decrease in sown area due to the monsoon's performance so far. A weaker second half could further complicate matters for farmers. Inadequate rainfall can impact crop yields, particularly for water-intensive crops like rice and sugarcane. The first half of the monsoon recorded a 13% deficit, and nearly half of the country's districts experienced deficient rainfall. This has a direct bearing on agricultural output, farm incomes, and potentially, food inflation. Farmers may need to adapt by shifting to less water-dependent crops like millets and pulses to mitigate the risks associated with an irregular monsoon. The government and agricultural bodies will be closely monitoring the situation to provide necessary support and advisories.
