The Monsoon's Critical Role
India's 2026 southwest monsoon season has concluded with a significant deficit, marking it as the weakest since 2015. The country received rainfall that was only 87% of the long-period average, a shortfall that has widespread implications for the agricultural
sector. Pulses, or dals, are predominantly grown in rain-fed areas, making their cultivation highly sensitive to the performance of the monsoon. Unlike crops such as wheat, which benefit from extensive irrigation during the rabi season, the kharif (monsoon) pulse crop relies heavily on timely and adequate rainfall. When the monsoon is weak or unevenly distributed, as it was this year, it directly impacts sowing decisions, plant growth, and ultimately, the final harvest volume.
From Sowing to Harvest: A Story of Stress
The deficient rains have created a complex picture on the ground. While the overall national acreage for kharif pulses saw a slight increase compared to last year, this headline number masks severe regional disparities. Key pulse-growing states like Maharashtra and Karnataka have faced prolonged dry spells, which raises serious concerns about crop yields. A fall in yield means that even if a similar area is planted, the total amount of dal harvested will be lower. The uneven rainfall in 2026, with a very dry June followed by a wetter July and then deficient rains again in August, disrupted sowing schedules and has affected crop health, leading to worries about lower productivity. Experts are now cautioning that the final output for major dals like tur (arhar) could be lower than initial expectations.
The Journey to Your Local Market
A smaller harvest at the farm level creates a ripple effect through the entire supply chain. Lower production leads to reduced arrivals in the wholesale markets, or mandis. When supply is tight and demand remains steady—especially with the festive season approaching—prices naturally begin to climb. Traders and dal millers, anticipating a future shortfall, may also become more aggressive in their purchasing, further supporting the price rise. Recent market data shows that prices for key pulses like tur and chana have already been firming up. For example, the all-India average retail price of tur dal had already risen in September due to the weak crop outlook. This wholesale price inflation is the precursor to the higher prices you eventually see at your neighbourhood grocery store.
Government Levers: Imports and Buffer Stocks
India is the world's largest producer, consumer, and importer of pulses. To manage price volatility and ensure availability, the government employs several strategies. One key tool is managing a buffer stock of pulses, which can be released into the market to cool down prices. Another is adjusting import policies. When a domestic shortfall is anticipated, the government can lower or remove import duties to make it cheaper for traders to bring in pulses from other countries like Australia, Canada, and Myanmar. In response to the current situation, the government is reportedly considering reducing import tariffs on some pulses to bolster domestic supply. These measures can help cushion the price shock, but their effectiveness depends on the timing of imports and the price in international markets.
What This Means for Your Kitchen Budget
The connection is direct: a weak monsoon threatens domestic dal production, which tightens supply and pushes up wholesale prices. These increased costs are eventually passed on to consumers. While government interventions can mitigate the impact, some price pressure is often unavoidable. In recent weeks, wholesale prices for chana, moong, and tur have all seen significant increases. Chana prices are reportedly up by around 23% compared to last year. As old stocks deplete and the smaller new harvest begins to define the market, households may need to brace for a period of more expensive dal. This not only affects the daily food budget but also has a broader impact on food inflation and the rural economy, where farm incomes are squeezed by lower output.
