A Monsoon with a Long Tail
The Southwest Monsoon, which typically begins its retreat from northwest India around September 17, is showing a delayed withdrawal this year. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) noted that conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal from parts
of West Rajasthan around September 19. However, this extended season has been marked by heavy and, in some places, extremely heavy rainfall events in mid-September. Regions like Sikkim, Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Assam, and Meghalaya have experienced very heavy rainfall. Similarly, heavy spells have been recorded over Uttarakhand, Punjab, and Himachal Pradesh. This late-season saturation of the ground is a key factor for winter travel, as it leaves soil and rock formations unstable, particularly in mountainous areas. This pattern of intense, concentrated rainfall, which has become more frequent, can have a lingering impact long after the rain stops.
High-Risk Regions for Winter Travel
The primary areas of concern for winter travellers are the Himalayan states, which are popular for their snow-clad landscapes and adventure sports. States like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, home to destinations like Shimla, Manali, Auli, and the regions of Garhwal and Kumaon, are particularly vulnerable. These areas are already prone to landslides, and the late monsoon downpours have exacerbated this risk. In July and August 2026, heavy rains had already caused numerous road blockages and landslides in both states. The continued precipitation in September on already saturated slopes increases the likelihood of further incidents. Even after the rain ceases, the risk of landslides can persist for weeks, as the ground remains unstable. This is a critical consideration for routes leading to high-altitude destinations, where roads are often carved into steep hillsides and are the sole means of access.
Potential Disruptions: What to Expect
Travellers planning trips to these regions between October and February should be prepared for a range of potential disruptions. The most significant is the risk of road closures. Landslides can block major national highways and smaller local roads for hours or even days, isolating entire valleys. Previous monsoon seasons have seen hundreds of roads closed in Himachal Pradesh alone, cutting off access and disrupting power and water supplies. Beyond complete closures, road conditions can be treacherous, with risks of falling rocks, mudflows, and damaged surfaces making driving hazardous. These disruptions can lead to significant travel delays, stranded vehicles, and the need for last-minute itinerary changes. The unpredictability is a key challenge; a route that is clear in the morning can become impassable by afternoon. This uncertainty extends to air travel as well, with flights to smaller mountain airfields often facing delays or cancellations due to weather.
How to Plan Your Winter Trip Safely
Despite the risks, it doesn't necessarily mean you have to cancel your winter holiday. Instead, a focus on cautious and flexible planning is essential. First, closely monitor weather forecasts from the IMD and advisories from local disaster management authorities before and during your trip. Second, check road status with local authorities or online portals before you travel. Many state police and transport departments provide updates on road conditions. Third, opt for flexible bookings for flights and hotels that allow for changes or cancellations. This can save you from financial loss if a landslide or road closure forces a change of plans. It is also wise to build buffer days into your itinerary to account for potential delays. Finally, always travel with an emergency kit, including extra food, water, a first-aid kit, and warm clothing, especially if you are driving through remote areas. For trekking or adventure activities, always go with a certified guide and ensure your travel insurance covers weather-related incidents and evacuations.
