A Drier End to the Season Expected
The IMD's latest long-range forecast, issued at the end of July, predicts that rainfall for the country as a whole is likely to be below normal for the August-September period. This means precipitation is expected to be less than 94% of the Long Period
Average (LPA), which stands at 422.8 mm for these two months based on data from 1971 to 2020. The outlook for August specifically also points towards below-normal rainfall. This follows a season that has already seen uneven distribution, with a significant deficit in June being partially offset by near-normal rains in July. The prospect of a drier late monsoon raises concerns about the final output of the Kharif sowing season and the status of water reservoirs.
The El Niño Effect
A key factor influencing this forecast is the presence of moderate El Niño conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The IMD notes that these conditions are expected to strengthen further during the remainder of the monsoon season. Historically, El Niño years are often associated with weaker monsoon winds and reduced rainfall over the Indian subcontinent. While a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) can sometimes counteract El Niño's drying effect, current forecasts indicate neutral IOD conditions are likely to persist, though some international models hint at a positive IOD developing in September. This strengthening El Niño is a primary driver behind the prediction for a subdued second half of the monsoon.
Uneven Distribution Across Regions
While the national picture suggests a deficit, the rainfall will not be uniform. The IMD forecast indicates that many parts of the country are very likely to experience below-normal rainfall. However, there are exceptions. Some areas in Peninsular India, parts of Central India, northern sections of northwest India, and areas in the East and Northeast may receive normal to even above-normal rainfall. This regional variation is critical; while some areas may get relief, others could face significant moisture stress. Along with less rain, maximum temperatures in August are expected to be above normal for most of the country, which could further strain water resources and standing crops.
Implications for Agriculture
The August-September period is a vital growth stage for Kharif crops, which were sown after the monsoon's arrival. A forecast of below-normal rain is a cause for concern for the agricultural sector. The uneven start to the monsoon had already led to a slight lag in the sowing of key crops like pulses and oilseeds. A drier August and September, combined with higher temperatures, could impact crop development and yields, particularly in rainfed agricultural zones that lack widespread irrigation. Farmers will be watching the skies closely, as the timing and distribution of the remaining rains will be crucial for a successful harvest.
What This Means for Planning
This detailed forecast allows for more focused planning. For agricultural authorities, it highlights the need for contingency plans in regions predicted to have a rainfall deficit, including advisories on water conservation and crop management. For urban planners, especially in cities that have already experienced waterlogging, any continued intense spells—even within a drier overall pattern—require that drainage systems remain on high alert. For water management bodies, the forecast for reduced inflow into major reservoirs will inform decisions about water allocation for drinking, irrigation, and power generation in the post-monsoon months. The overall message is one of vigilance and careful resource management for the remainder of the season.
