What is this new weather system?
Meteorologists are tracking a cyclonic circulation, which is a large-scale rotation of air, over the Bay of Bengal. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has indicated that this circulation is likely to form over the west-central and adjoining northwest
Bay of Bengal. Forecasters expect this system to intensify into a low-pressure area, a key ingredient for triggering monsoon showers. These systems are common during the monsoon season and are vital for pulling moisture-laden winds from the sea onto the Indian subcontinent.
Why is this significant now?
The development comes after a noticeable lull in monsoon activity, particularly over peninsular India, which has been experiencing subdued rainfall for about a week. This phase, often called a "monsoon break," has led to questions about whether the rainy season is approaching an early end. However, the formation of a new low-pressure system suggests that the monsoon is not yet ready to withdraw. These systems are crucial for reviving the monsoon trough—a long zone of low pressure that is the backbone of the monsoon—and re-energizing rainfall across the mainland.
Which regions will be most affected?
The primary impact of this system is expected over eastern and adjoining central parts of India. According to the latest forecasts, states like Odisha, Chhattisgarh, and the Vidarbha region of Maharashtra are likely to see a significant increase in rainfall starting around September 10. Widespread rain is predicted for Odisha from September 10 to 12. The system's influence may also extend to parts of the southern peninsula, with regions like Coastal Karnataka expected to receive revived rainfall between September 10 and 16. Northeast India, including states like Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, and Tripura, is also forecast to experience steady, widespread rain.
What is the official forecast?
The IMD's extended-range forecast confirms the likelihood of a low-pressure area developing, which will cause an increase in rainfall over eastern and adjoining parts of peninsular India. While this specific system is expected to bring a wet spell to certain regions, the overall forecast for September had previously suggested that rainfall for the country as a whole might be below normal. This highlights the uneven nature of the 2026 monsoon, which has seen some regions with surplus rain while others face deficits. The current country-wide seasonal deficit stands at around 13-14%. Therefore, the revival will likely be regional rather than a uniform, nationwide event.
Is this a sign the monsoon is withdrawing?
No, a lull in rainfall does not mean the monsoon has officially withdrawn. The IMD has specific criteria for declaring the monsoon's withdrawal, including five consecutive days of no significant rain and a change in wind patterns. The current situation is considered a temporary slowdown. In fact, systems like the one forming in the Bay of Bengal are characteristic of the latter part of the season and can lead to active monsoon spells even in September. The official withdrawal process typically begins from the westernmost parts of the country and is a gradual retreat that takes several weeks.
