What Exactly Is the Monsoon Retreat?
The monsoon retreat, or withdrawal, is the reversal of the atmospheric conditions that bring rain to India. From June to September, warm, moist winds blow from the southwest across the ocean, bringing rain. The retreat marks the beginning of a shift,
where these winds weaken and are replaced by drier, cooler winds blowing from the land towards the sea. This process is gradual, starting from the northwestern-most parts of the country and slowly moving southeast over several weeks. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially declares the withdrawal based on specific criteria, including a continuous five-day period with no rainfall, a drop in moisture levels, and the establishment of a high-pressure system in the lower atmosphere.
Is the 2026 Withdrawal on Schedule?
The normal date for the monsoon to begin its withdrawal from the extreme northwestern parts of Rajasthan is around September 17. As of early September, satellite images have shown a significant reduction in cloud cover over northwest and central India, signalling that the monsoon is weakening. However, the official withdrawal has not yet been declared. Forecasters from the IMD have indicated that conditions will likely become favourable for the retreat to commence after September 15, which would mean the withdrawal is starting more or less on time this year. This marks a contrast to some recent years where the withdrawal has been significantly delayed.
A Season of Uneven Rains
This year's monsoon season has been a story of contrasts. While some regions have battled floods and landslides from intense downpours, others have been left wanting. As of early September, the cumulative rainfall for the country as a whole was running at a deficit of around 14% below the long-period average. August, in particular, was one of the driest and hottest on record, a trend linked to a strong El Niño in the Pacific Ocean which is known to suppress monsoon rainfall in India. This has left the season’s overall performance patchy, with significant variations from one state to another.
The Forecast for the Coming Weeks
The IMD has forecast below-normal rainfall for the country as a whole during September. As the withdrawal begins, rainfall will reduce significantly across northwest India, leading to clearer skies and drier weather. However, this doesn't mean the end of rain for everyone. The retreating monsoon often triggers what are known as 'withdrawal symptoms'—bouts of rainfall over central and eastern India even as the main system pulls back. Fairly widespread rains are still expected in states like Madhya Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, and Uttarakhand in the near term. For peninsular India, the IMD has suggested that rainfall activity is likely to remain subdued for the first part of September.
A Second Act: The Northeast Monsoon
The end of the southwest monsoon is not the end of the rainy season for the southeastern peninsula. As the winds reverse, they begin to blow from the northeast. After passing over the warm Bay of Bengal, these winds pick up moisture and bring significant rainfall to Tamil Nadu, coastal Andhra Pradesh, and parts of Kerala and Karnataka between October and December. This is known as the Northeast Monsoon or the 'retreating monsoon'. For these regions, some of their heaviest and most important rainfall of the year is yet to come, a crucial factor for agriculture and refilling reservoirs after the main monsoon season has concluded for the rest of the country.
