The Unpredictable Monsoon Withdrawal
Traditionally, the southwest monsoon begins its retreat from northwest India around mid-September, clearing the way for dry, pleasant travel conditions. However, this process is becoming less predictable. In 2026, the withdrawal is forecast to start around September 19,
slightly later than the normal date of September 17. In recent years, monsoons have lingered longer, sometimes extending well into what was once considered the start of the dry season. This means travellers planning trips for late September or early October in regions like Rajasthan or even the foothills of the Himalayas might encounter more rainfall and humidity than expected, potentially disrupting sightseeing and outdoor activities.
A Warmer, Delayed Winter Ahead
Following an erratic monsoon, the onset of winter is also changing. A strong El Niño event is developing in the Pacific, and forecasts suggest it will persist through February 2027. For India, this typically means warmer-than-average winter temperatures. While this might sound pleasant, it has several knock-on effects for travellers. A milder winter could mean less snowfall in popular Himalayan destinations like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, potentially shortening the season for winter sports like skiing. Experts predict the El Niño will peak in late 2026, leading to a warmer winter and potentially spilling over into a harsher summer in 2027.
Impact on Himalayan Trekking
The Himalayas are particularly sensitive to these climatic shifts. The traditional post-monsoon trekking window of October and November, prized for its stable weather and clear views, is narrowing. Delayed monsoons can leave trails wet and prone to landslides well into the autumn. Furthermore, snowfall patterns have become irregular. Some years see early, heavy snows that block high passes, while others have drier conditions that extend the trekking season but with different challenges. For trekkers, this means the old calendars are no longer a reliable guide. Flexibility, checking recent trail reports, and preparing for a wider range of conditions—from rain to unexpected snow—is now essential for a safe trip.
What to Expect in Coastal and Southern India
Southern and coastal regions like Kerala and Goa are also feeling the effects. The 2026 monsoon has left southern peninsular states with a significant rainfall deficit. While the main monsoon travel season is generally avoided by beachgoers, the post-monsoon period is critical. An erratic transition could affect the lushness of landscapes in the Kerala backwaters or lead to unseasonal rain. As of mid-September 2026, hot and humid conditions are expected to persist in Kerala even as the monsoon withdraws from the north. Rising sea levels and coastal erosion are long-term concerns that could affect beach destinations, while extreme rainfall events have previously caused flooding and landslides, impacting tourism in areas like the Western Ghats.
How to Plan Your Trip Now
In this new era of unpredictable weather, flexibility is the modern traveller’s most important tool. The classic October-to-March window remains the best bet for most of India, but it's no longer a guarantee of perfect weather. When planning, build in buffer days, especially if your itinerary involves flights or train travel in northern India during December and January, when fog can cause delays. Pack layers that can handle both warm days and surprisingly cool nights. For mountain travel, always consult with local operators about current trail conditions before you go. Finally, investing in travel insurance that covers weather-related disruptions is more prudent than ever. The key is to embrace the variability, stay informed about local forecasts, and be prepared to adapt your plans.
