What is Monsoon Withdrawal?
Monsoon withdrawal isn’t like flipping a switch; it's a gradual process. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) officially declares it based on three key conditions. First, rainfall must cease over an area for five consecutive days. Second, an anticyclone—a
large-scale circulation of winds around a high-pressure centre—needs to establish itself in the lower atmosphere. This is what pushes the moisture-laden monsoon winds away. Finally, there must be a considerable drop in moisture levels. This process typically starts in the extreme northwestern parts of India around early September and gradually moves southeast across the country over several weeks.
The Current Status: A Waiting Game
As of early September, satellite imagery reveals strikingly clear skies over northwest and central India, a strong hint that monsoon activity is weakening. However, the IMD has stated that the formal withdrawal process has not officially begun. Forecasters expect the necessary atmospheric conditions to become favourable for retreat in the second half of September, with the official withdrawal likely to commence from parts of northwest India after September 15. Some models suggest the anticyclonic circulation needed for a full-scale withdrawal will strengthen around September 21. This year has been marked by erratic monsoon behavior, with the country facing a rainfall deficit even amid episodes of extreme downpours in certain areas.
The Promise of Drier Days Ahead
The first sign of the withdrawal is already here for some: a spell of hot, dry weather. As dry northwesterly winds begin to dominate, regions like Delhi-NCR, Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and parts of Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh can expect almost no rain for the next several days. This change brings a welcome return of clear blue skies and bright sunshine, offering a break from the persistent grey clouds. However, this also means daytime temperatures are likely to rise, creating hotter conditions even as the monsoon season officially closes. This transition phase is a clear indicator that the large-scale weather pattern is shifting from the wet monsoon to a drier post-monsoon period.
Why the Risk of Rain Remains
While the larger monsoon system is retreating, it doesn't mean the umbrellas can be packed away for good just yet. The withdrawal is a staggered process, taking weeks to cover the entire country. While northwest India turns dry, other regions may still be under active monsoon conditions. Furthermore, even as the main system weakens, localised weather phenomena can still trigger rainfall. Forecasters are tracking a potential low-pressure system over the Bay of Bengal, which could bring another round of widespread rain to East, Central, and North India between September 12 and 18. The IMD has also forecast heavy rainfall in states like Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand around September 10-13, showing that pockets of intense rain remain a possibility.
What This Means for Different Regions
The impact of this transition varies significantly. For farmers in the northwest, the end of the rains is crucial for harvesting summer crops. For city dwellers in places like Delhi and Jaipur, it signals relief from waterlogging and humidity. However, the 2026 monsoon has been uneven, with some regions like South Peninsular India facing significant rainfall deficits, while others have experienced floods. Subdued rainfall is expected to continue over Peninsular India for the next week. This erratic distribution highlights the complex nature of the monsoon, where one part of the country can be drying out while another is still bracing for downpours.
