What Exactly is El Niño?
El Niño is a naturally occurring climate pattern, but its effects are anything but ordinary. It begins with the unusual warming of the surface waters in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean. This shift in ocean temperature disrupts atmospheric patterns
globally, changing wind and rainfall systems. For India, El Niño has a historically strong connection to the performance of the crucial southwest monsoon. Typically, a strong El Niño can suppress monsoon winds, leading to less rainfall across large parts of the country. International weather agencies are watching the current 2026 event closely, with many predicting it could strengthen into a 'strong' or even 'historic' event by the end of the year.
A Tale of Two Extremes: Drought and Deluge
The primary risk associated with El Niño in India is a weaker monsoon, which can lead to drought-like conditions. Regions in central, northern, and western India are particularly vulnerable to receiving below-average rainfall. This translates to depleted reservoirs, water scarcity in urban areas, and significant stress on agriculture, which can eventually impact food prices in the cities. However, a weaker monsoon doesn't mean a rain-free season. A dangerous paradox is emerging: the weather pattern often leads to long dry spells punctuated by short, extremely intense bursts of rain. This is a recipe for disaster in urban areas, where overwhelmed drainage systems can trigger flash floods and widespread waterlogging, even in a season that is 'dry' overall.
Heatwaves and Strained Infrastructure
Beyond rainfall, El Niño significantly dials up the heat. The phenomenon contributes to higher global temperatures, amplifying the risk of severe and prolonged heatwaves across India, especially in the already hot north-western and central plains. For cities, this is a multi-layered threat. Extreme heat places a huge strain on public health systems and increases demand for electricity as air conditioner usage spikes, risking power grid failures. Concrete and asphalt in urban areas absorb and retain heat, creating 'urban heat islands' that make city temperatures even higher than in surrounding rural areas, providing no respite even at night.
Which Cities are Most Vulnerable?
While all of India is exposed, certain urban centres face specific threats. Cities in states like Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, and Madhya Pradesh should brace for hotter and drier conditions. Analysis suggests major metropolitan areas like Mumbai are likely to trend drier, increasing water security concerns. In contrast, coastal cities in Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh could experience episodes of heavier-than-normal rainfall. However, the key takeaway from recent weather events is that any city with inadequate drainage is at risk of flooding from intense downpours. The experience of places like Kerala, which has suffered devastating floods despite a seasonal rainfall deficit, serves as a stark warning for all urban centres.
Preparing for an Unpredictable Season
Facing a dual threat of scarcity and sudden excess requires a proactive approach. For municipal authorities, this means reinforcing drainage infrastructure, enforcing rainwater harvesting, securing water supplies, and strengthening early warning systems for both heatwaves and flood events. For citizens, preparation involves conserving water, being aware of heatwave advisories, and understanding the flood risk in their locality. The unpredictability of El Niño means that we can no longer rely on seasonal averages. Instead, we must prepare for the extremes, ensuring our cities are resilient enough to handle both long periods with too little water and sudden moments with far too much.
