The Current Monsoon 'Break'
Across much of the country, particularly in peninsular India, rainfall has significantly reduced over the past several days. This phenomenon is often described as a 'break' in the monsoon. It doesn't mean the season has officially ended, but rather that
the systems driving widespread, heavy rain have temporarily lost their intensity. According to the India Meteorological Department (IMD), this subdued rainfall activity is expected to continue over the peninsula for about a week. While some areas like Delhi-NCR are seeing a retreat of the monsoon with drier conditions, other parts of the country in the east and northeast continue to receive rain. This uneven distribution is characteristic of the monsoon's later stages. The country as a whole has recorded a rainfall deficit of about 14% for the season as of early September.
Regions Feeling the Dry Spell
The slowdown in monsoon activity is most pronounced across southern and peninsular India. However, even within this, the impact is varied. Satellite imagery shows significantly reduced cloud cover over northwest and central regions as well. The IMD has noted that rainfall was 'deficient' or 'large deficient' in central, east, and northeast India on September 7th, while northwest India saw 'excess' rain. This highlights the patchy nature of the current phase. States like Haryana and Punjab are experiencing warmer, drier conditions. This lull is critical, especially for agriculture, as sufficient rainfall in September is vital for standing crops and ensuring adequate soil moisture for the upcoming winter planting season.
A Glimmer of Hope from the Bay
Just as the monsoon appears to be fading, forecasters are tracking a potential game-changer: a new weather system brewing in the Bay of Bengal. The IMD anticipates that a cyclonic circulation is likely to form over the central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal. Under its influence, a low-pressure area could develop over the same region around September 11. Such systems are the engines of the monsoon, pulling moisture from the sea and carrying it over the mainland to produce rain. The formation and movement of this system are now the single most important factors determining whether the monsoon will see a vigorous revival in its final weeks.
What to Expect Next
The development of the Bay of Bengal system is expected to increase rainfall, particularly over eastern India and adjoining parts of northeastern peninsular India. The IMD is already forecasting fairly widespread rain over states like Chhattisgarh, Vidarbha, and Odisha from September 10-12. While this may not signal a nationwide revival, it could bring much-needed precipitation to these regions. For North and Northwest India, however, a structural shift is expected in the second half of the month, with models projecting a sharp reduction in rainfall around September 20, paving the way for drier, post-monsoon conditions. The official withdrawal of the monsoon is a gradual process, declared only after specific criteria, including five straight days of no significant rain, are met.
The Bigger Picture: El Niño's Shadow
This year's monsoon performance is playing out under the influence of strong El Niño conditions in the Pacific Ocean, which are expected to intensify. Historically, El Niño years can be associated with suppressed monsoon rainfall in India. The IMD had forecast a 'below-normal' monsoon for September overall. This global climate pattern, combined with local and regional weather systems, creates a complex and often unpredictable scenario. While the active phase in late August and early September helped offset some deficits, the erratic behaviour of the 2026 monsoon has been a defining feature, with some regions facing deluges while others remain dry.
