New Delhi: The southwest monsoon is likely to start withdrawing from India around September 19, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said on Monday.
The withdrawal will come as the country enters the final phase of the monsoon season, with several major agricultural states still facing significant rainfall deficits.
As of September 13, India’s overall monsoon rainfall deficit stood at 15 per cent. The shortage has been particularly severe in the south peninsula and east and northeast India. Punjab, Haryana, Rajasthan, Bihar, Karnataka, Kerala, Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, Arunachal Pradesh and Meghalaya are among the states where the deficit is unlikely to recover.
Monsoon withdrawal likely this week
The monsoon is expected to retreat first from west Rajasthan around September 19. The normal withdrawal date is September 17, while last year the process began on September 14.
“Conditions are becoming favourable for withdrawal of Southwest Monsoon from some parts of West Rajasthan around September, 19, 2026,” the IMD said in a statement on Monday.
Before the withdrawal begins, several parts of the country are expected to receive rain. The IMD has forecast fairly widespread rainfall over Jammu, Kashmir, Ladakh, Gilgit-Baltistan and Muzaffarabad from September 15 to 17. Punjab, Haryana and Delhi may also receive rain on September 16 and 17.
Isolated rainfall is expected over Rajasthan between September 15 and 17, while Uttar Pradesh may see scattered rain until September 18.
Mahesh Palawat, vice president at Skymet, said conditions were favourable for the monsoon to withdraw by the end of the week. “We expect it to happen by September 20. Some decent rain is likely in the region before that,” he said.
Rain activity expected across regions
In the south, heavy rain is possible over Tamil Nadu, Puducherry and Karaikal, while Kerala and Mahe may see rain until September 16. South Karnataka could receive isolated heavy rain on September 15, with coastal Andhra Pradesh and Telangana likely to see activity from September 18 to 20.
Central India may get showers over Chhattisgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Vidarbha until September 20. West Bengal and Sikkim are likely to receive fairly widespread rain until September 20, while Bihar and Odisha may see rain during September 16-17 and September 19-20, respectively.
The national deficit had reached 40 per cent in June before improving after widespread July rainfall. It stood at 13 per cent at the end of July, 14 per cent at the end of August and 15 per cent as of September 13.
The largest regional deficit is in the south peninsula at 28 per cent, followed by east and northeast India at 25 per cent. Central India has a 6 per cent deficit, while northwest India is at 10 per cent.
Skymet and IMD forecasts
On August 31, the IMD forecast below-normal rainfall for September. Skymet had earlier revised its seasonal forecast on August 17, predicting rainfall at 85 per cent of the long-period average (LPA) and giving a 70 per cent probability of drought.
IMD had initially forecast seasonal rainfall at 92 per cent of LPA in April, but revised it to 90 per cent in June, with a 60 per cent probability of a deficient monsoon season.
