New Delhi: Solar outbursts over the past week has induced severe geomagnetic storming at the Earth. A Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) associated with an X1.7
solar flare on 09 November reached Earth on 12 November, closely followed by another CME associated with an X1.2 solar flare that erupted on 10 November. The CME associated with an X5.1 solar flare on 11 November travelling at speeds in excess of 1,000 km/s is expected to pile on, with the geomagnetic storming forecasted to continue into 13 November. The three X-class flares in as many days were produced by a cluster of sunspots designated as Active Region 4274 by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) and Sunspot Group 687 by the Solar Influences Data Analysis Centre (SIDC) operated by the Royal Observatory of Belgium.
The space weather service provider for India, Center of Excellence in Space Sciences India (CESSI) hosted by the Indian Institutes of Science Education and Research (IISER) in Kolkata issued a CME alert, “Halo CME Associated to X 5.2 Class Flare On November 11 at 10:00 UT, Active Region (AR) 14274 produced an X5.2 class solar flare, which was associated with a halo coronal mass ejection (CME). Our analysis indicates that the CME is Earth-directed, with a very high probability of (flank) impact. The CME is projected to reach Earth on 12 November at approximately 19:36 UT, with an uncertainty of ±8 hours and an estimated speed of around 946 km/s (range: 736–1416 km/s). There is a possibility of CME-CME interactions with an earlier CME during transit or Earth impact one after another. This has the potential to cause severe geomagnetic perturbations. Auroras at high-mid latitudes are expected.”
Space Weather Forecast
According to the latest forecast by the SIDC, “Conditions are expected to become disturbed late on 11 Nov into 12 Nov with the anticipated arrival of interplanetary coronal mass ejection (SIDC CME 559) associated with the X1.2 event (SIDC Flare 6010) that peaked on 10 November at 09:19 UTC, and produced by SIDC Sunspot Group 687 (NOAA Active Region 4274).” According to the forecast of the SWPC, “G1-G4 (Minor-Strong) levels are likely early on 12 Nov with the arrival of the 09 and 10 Nov CMEs. By mid to late on 12 Nov, activity will likely increase to G3-G4 (Strong-Severe) storming with the arrival of the 11 Nov CME. G1-G3 (Minor-Strong) storm levels are likely to continue into 13 Nov as CME activity persists. Unsettled to G1 (Minor) levels are likely on 14 Nov as activity wanes.”
